The political landscape in Extremadura is shifting rapidly: the Partido Popular is confidently taking the lead, but will need an alliance with Vox to secure a majority. According to the latest poll by the Center for Sociological Research (CIS), María Guardiola has garnered 30.9% of the vote, giving her a significant lead over the Socialists. At the same time, 46.2% of local residents would prefer to see her as president.
The Socialists (PSOE) have seen their position noticeably weaken. The party’s candidate, Miguel Ángel Gallardo, can count on just 24% support. His approval is the lowest among the main contenders, and his personal rating does not even reach the average benchmark. Meanwhile, Guardiola is the only candidate to receive a positive assessment from Extremadura voters.
PSOE’s decline and internal divisions
The poll results highlight a deepening crisis within the region’s Socialist party. Support for PSOE has dropped by 16 percentage points compared to the previous election. The party remains divided over Gallardo’s candidacy, who found himself at the center of a scandal linked to an investigation involving Pedro Sánchez’s brother. Many Socialists view the choice of a candidate with such a background as a mistake, which has negatively impacted the poll results.
Scandals and internal disputes have only increased dissatisfaction among the party’s supporters. According to the survey, only 26% of Extremadura residents would like to see Gallardo at the head of the region. His approval rating is even lower than that of Podemos representative Irene de Miguel, who scored 4.10 points compared to the socialist’s 3.68.
Vox gains ground
Against the backdrop of declining support for the socialists, Vox’s influence has grown significantly. The party, led by Santiago Abascal, has nearly doubled its previous election result, reaching 14.2% of the vote. This means that without Vox’s support, the Partido Popular will not be able to form a stable majority in the regional parliament.
The Vox candidate in Extremadura, Óscar Fernández, is not yet widely popular: only 13% of those surveyed would like to see him as president. His personal approval rating also remains low—at 3.6 points. Nevertheless, the party’s growing support is making it a key player in future coalition talks.
Prospects for forming a government
According to the poll, the Partido Popular remains in the lead, but cannot expect to govern the region alone. To form a majority, María Guardiola will require Vox’s support, which could complicate negotiations due to differences between the parties. Previously, it was the lack of agreement on the budget that led to early elections in Extremadura.
The scenario in which PP and Vox join forces is becoming increasingly likely. However, the question remains: will they be able to reach an agreement and avoid new political crises? In any case, the poll results clearly show that the region’s political landscape is undergoing significant changes, with voters increasingly opting for new alliances.
