The pension issue has once again taken center stage nationwide. More than nine million Spanish pensioners could face a reduction in payments of 50 euros as early as February. The reason is a political deadlock over a new government decree that was meant to protect their income but ended up blocked due to disputes over housing policy.
The situation worsened after a package of measures, including a pension increase, failed to pass in Congress. The PP, Vox, and Junts voted against it, citing disagreements with other parts of the document. Now, the fate of pensions and tenant protection have become closely intertwined, and a solution must be found within days.
Political Stalemate
Government chief negotiator Félix Bolaños is trying to reach a compromise with Junts to bring a new decree before the Council of Ministers as soon as Tuesday. However, Junts insists on removing the so-called ‘eviction shield’—a measure protecting vulnerable tenants from losing their homes—from the document.
For the government, this would be a simple solution since the other points do not cause serious disagreements. But such a move would inevitably lead to conflict with coalition partners—Sumar, Bildu, ERC, and Podemos—who consider tenant protection a matter of principle. The issue is particularly pressing for Sumar, whose ministers are demanding that social guarantees for 50,000 families facing eviction be preserved.
Amid economic growth and record employment levels, the prospect of mass evictions in winter could seriously damage the progressive government’s image. Pressure is mounting within the coalition: some demand concessions for the sake of pensions, while others are unwilling to sacrifice social protection for a compromise.
Arguments from both sides
Junts, as well as PP and Vox, call protected tenants ‘squatters’, even though the current decree explicitly excludes those who have occupied housing by force. The measure is aimed at people with valid rental contracts who have found themselves in difficult situations and are unable to pay. Independent deputies and homeowners’ associations claim compensation for the inability to evict is arriving too slowly and in insufficient amounts.
Last year, the parties agreed on a guarantee system for owners, but Junts says the mechanism doesn’t work. In five years, only 3,000 owners have received compensation, causing dissatisfaction and renewed demands to the government. Meanwhile, left-wing parties and Sumar ministers insist that lifting protections would trigger a wave of evictions affecting tens of thousands of families, including those with children.
Pressure and protests
Tensions are rising within the coalition. Sumar ministers and leftist representatives are demanding not to yield to pressure from Junts, PP, and Vox, to avoid a repeat of the dramatic scenes of 2008, when thousands of families were left homeless. Pensioners are already staging protests outside the Junts and PP headquarters, demanding an urgent solution to the pension issue and the preservation of social protection.
Bolaños is negotiating on several fronts, offering various concessions to maintain a balance of interests. However, this year Junts has taken a tougher stance than before, and there is no easy solution in sight. Officially, both sides claim that no talks are taking place, but unofficial contacts continue — without them, it would be impossible to organize any vote.
Possible scenarios
Despite the severity of the situation, the actual threat to pensions is minimal. In the worst case, the government could pass a separate decree solely on increasing payments, excluding the disputed provisions. This step would lead to conflict with its allies but would prevent pension cuts. The decision rests with Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez, who must choose between political risks and social responsibility.
While negotiations are ongoing, the government is working to solidify its fragile majority in parliament. January has already become a month of major agreements: deals have been reached with ERC on funding, with Bildu on the social shield, and with PNV on devolving powers. Recently, Ione Belarra and Bolaños agreed on the legalization of 500,000 immigrants, which has also become part of a complex political puzzle.
In recent years, Spain has repeatedly faced heated debates over housing policy and tenant protection. In 2023, a similar crisis was averted at the last minute after mass protests and pressure from social organizations. At that time, the government also had to strike a balance between property owners’ interests and the need to support vulnerable families. Such situations have occurred before, as economic hardship and rising rental prices intensified political clashes. Each time, solutions were found at the last moment, but public tension continued to grow.
