In Spanish politics, early elections have long been a tool used by leaders seeking to strengthen their position. However, history shows that this move does not always deliver the desired results. Decisions to move up the voting date are often made in uncertain circumstances, when it seems the timing is perfect for a win. But reality often brings its own surprises.
Smart moves and unexpected failures
In recent years, some politicians have managed to make the most of early elections. For example, in Madrid in 2021 and in Andalucía in 2022, leaders not only retained power but also significantly increased their influence. Inspired by their example, María Guardiola in Extremadura called early elections for December, even though they were originally scheduled for 2027. In these cases, betting on the weakness of the opposition and a favorable political climate paid off perfectly.
But early elections don’t always end in triumph. The example of Artur Mas in Catalunya in 2012, or Susana Díaz in Andalucía in 2018, shows that trying to seize the initiative can sometimes backfire. Even a small advantage at the start can turn into a loss of control and the need to seek out new alliances.
Political motives and justifications
Official reasons for early elections are often cited as the inability to pass a budget or the threat of political instability. But behind these justifications usually lie more pragmatic calculations: the desire to seize the moment when approval ratings are high and opponents are weakened. In some cases, as in Galicia or Valencia, snap elections were synchronized with national elections to capitalize on a broader political wave. At other times, on the contrary, leaders try to avoid overlapping with major events to keep external factors from swaying the outcome.
Sometimes, early elections are triggered by internal crises. That was the case in Madrid, where disagreements with coalition partners pushed the parliament to dissolve. In other cases, such as in Castilla y León, attempts to replicate someone else’s political success backfired, strengthening radical forces and forcing compromises with new players.
International experience and unexpected consequences
Spanish politicians are not alone in facing the risks of early elections. In other countries, such as the United Kingdom or Canada, attempts to strengthen positions by moving up election dates have sometimes led to the opposite result. Even if the leader holds on to power, their influence can diminish significantly, and the political landscape may be transformed beyond recognition.
In Spain, every new instance of early elections sparks discussion: is it worth taking the risk for potential gains, or is it better to wait until the scheduled date? There is no clear answer. Sometimes betting on moving ahead pays off, but often it leads to unexpected difficulties and even a loss of power.
