Semana Santa in Málaga is always an event that shapes the life of the city and its visitors. In 2026, all eyes are on the weather forecast: unpredictable spring weather may alter traditional processions and plans for thousands. For both locals and tourists, it’s important to know what to expect to avoid unpleasant surprises and adjust their routes in advance.
According to the Agencia Estatal de Meteorología (AEMET), as of publication, accurate forecasts are only available for the next seven days. Experts predict that the start of Semana Santa will pass without significant rainfall, despite cloud cover over Málaga. For more than 40 brotherhoods and religious organizations preparing for processions, this means the first two days of the holiday should be relatively calm. On Domingo de Ramos, the chance of rain is 20%, and on Lunes Santo — 25%. Before that, on Friday, cloudy skies are expected with just a 10% chance of brief showers. Temperatures during this period will fluctuate: daytime averages around 19.5°C, nighttime — about 10°C.
Week overview
According to Eltiempo.es and Meteored, Semana Santa is expected to be mostly sunny, with no threat of major cyclones. However, as noted by Eltiempo.es, clear weather is forecast only through Miércoles Santo. From April 1, the chance of rain rises to 40%, and humidity is set to reach up to 86%. In the following days, conditions will change: on Jueves Santo, rain chances drop to 10%, but on Friday increase again to 30%. This variability is typical for early spring, when weather conditions can shift within just a few hours.
Meteorologists at Centro Meteorológico de Málaga emphasize that it is still too early for long-term forecasts, but Meteored leans towards a dry Semana Santa. Their website indicates that significant rainfall is not expected and daytime temperatures will range from 17 to 21°C. Despite these optimistic expectations, past experience shows that even with favorable forecasts, the weather can hold surprises.
Historical context
Agencia Estatal de Meteorología (AEMET) analyzes Semana Santa weather patterns from the mid-20th century through 2025 to offer a more accurate assessment of likely scenarios. In recent years, Semana Santa in Málaga has often seen rainy weather: 2024 was one of the wettest years, leading to the cancellation or shortening of many processions. In 2025, there were also cloudy days and unstable conditions. Historical data shows that spring in the region is usually mild in temperature but marked by high variability and uneven rainfall.
According to AEMET data, Semana Santa rarely passes without any rain, yet periods of sunny weather are just as common. For procession organizers and participants, this means the constant need to monitor forecast updates and be ready to make quick changes to routes. In recent years, many brotherhoods have implemented new technologies to track weather in real time, aiming to minimize risks for both participants and spectators.
Impact on the city
Semana Santa is not only a religious event but also a key driver for Malaga’s economy. Tourist flows reach their peak during this period, and weather conditions directly impact hotel occupancy, restaurants, and transport companies. Even light rain can lead to changes in event schedules, affecting business revenues and the mood of visitors. According to russpain.com, in recent years, even minor changes in weather have led to mass booking cancellations and a decline in attendance at outdoor events.
In 2026, despite cautious forecasts, city authorities and Semana Santa organizers are preparing alternative plans in case of worsening weather. New alert systems are being introduced, and coordination between security services and procession organizers is being reinforced. This approach helps minimize the impact of unexpected weather changes and preserves the festive atmosphere.
Semana Santa in Malaga is traditionally marked by heightened attention to the weather. In 2023, for example, a sudden cold snap and brief downpours forced organizers to cancel some evening processions. By contrast, in 2022, consistently sunny weather allowed all events to proceed as scheduled. Such fluctuations are typical for the region, and each year brings new challenges for both residents and visitors.
