Spain’s weather changed sharply this week as a strong Atlantic front brought rain and cold air across much of the country, sending temperatures down by up to 10 degrees in a few days. The State Meteorological Agency (AEMET) placed Catalonia under a red alert and issued orange warnings for Galicia as September ends with autumnal conditions. AEMET, EFE and RTVE reported the highest risk in northern Tarragona, where forecasters warned of extreme rainfall. Galicia also faces heavy rain and coastal storms.
Morning lows have fallen to 9 to 13°C in the north and about 15°C in the south, a marked change from the heat that lasted through September. Even the warmest spots are struggling to reach 29°C, with no break from the damp, chilly air in the forecast. AEMET warned that Catalonia could receive up to 180 liters per square meter in 12 hours, with some rain falling in just 3 to 6 hours and posing a real risk of local flooding.
Elsewhere in Catalonia, yellow and orange alerts were issued, with forecasts of up to 60 l/m² per hour and more than 150 l/m² in 3 to 6 hours. Warnings also covered hail, wind gusts of 70 to 90 km/h and possible waterspouts along the coast.
AEMET’s latest forecast says the Atlantic front will remain until at least October 1, bringing rain to most regions. The heaviest downpours will move from the Cantabrian coast toward the east. Flooding risk is low for now, though AEMET may issue more warnings as the week goes on. Most areas will see clouds and scattered showers, with the heaviest rain in the afternoon. In Galicia, AEMET expects up to 80 liters per square meter in 12 hours in the west and southwest of La Coruña. Coastal conditions will be rough, with strong southerly winds.
Anyone hoping for a last blast of summer will be disappointed: this week brings humid, rainy weather and a steady autumn chill. Only the Canary Islands escape the worst. Storm chances there are low, though some haze may linger. Everywhere else, the models show a wet, cool pattern through the weekend, with rain likely almost everywhere. AEMET’s weekly outlook points to a broad shift: Atlantic cyclonic fronts are driving the change, especially in the west and along the Mediterranean.
On September 28, AEMET had already warned of a impressive weather change, issuing alerts for rain and storms in Catalonia and Galicia, as well as in Andalusia, Aragon, Cantabria, Castile and León, Castile-La Mancha, Extremadura, Navarre and the Basque Country. The warning reflected the Atlantic front’s widespread impact across multiple autonomous communities.
Old-school forecasting methods such as the Cabañuelas also point to a rainy October. The month will start quietly. The west may see slightly warmer weather, while Saharan dust could reach the Canaries. But by October 9, storms are expected to sweep in from the west and south, reaching the Mediterranean coast soon after. The Levante region could see unsettled weather at the start of the Puente del Pilar holiday. The north will turn cooler, with light rain.
Jorge Rey, a young forecaster known for using Cabañuelas, expects the unsettled pattern to last through mid-October. Around October 12, warm African air could push temperatures up in the east, but the change will be brief. By October 17, clouds and light rain should return to the north. Conditions may improve after that, while any late warmth will be brief and much weaker than September’s highs.
Late October could bring another change. A strong anticyclone is forecast to break down around the 23rd or 24th, allowing a new front to bring storms and rain to the north and center. The last days of the month might bring better weather, though the Cantabrian coast could see more damp spells as cool, moist air moves in.
Spanish media reported that earlier warnings about heavy rain and storms in Catalonia and other regions have now played out. The current forecast shows Spain moving into autumn: summer extremes are fading, and the country is settling into a more typical October pattern.
AEMET has not yet released detailed guidance for the rest of October. The agency does not expect the wild swings seen in previous months. Instead, Spain is on track for a steady move toward winter. November will likely bring more cold and longer spells of rain.
