CaixaBank expects mortgage growth to slow in 2027 as home prices and interest rates shut more buyers out. Consumer and business lending are holding up better.
Spain recorded 61,417 registered home sales in July 2026. The figure was about 5.1% below the level a year earlier, according to official INE data.
CaixaBank expects mortgage lending growth to slow in 2027 as housing prices move beyond what many buyers can afford. Gonzalo Gortázar also points to higher current and long-term interest rates. Markets are pricing in up to four further European Central Bank increases, which could take rates to 3.5%.
The pressure is already visible in demand. Gortázar said many people want to buy a home but cannot reach today's prices. Affordability has become the main limit on the housing market. The chief executive spoke at the Encuentro Financiero XVII forum organised by KPMG and Expansión.
Spain recorded 61,417 registered home sales in July 2026, down about 5.1% from a year earlier, according to official INE data. The decline adds evidence that affordability pressures are beginning to weigh on completed transactions as well as mortgage demand.
The mortgage slowdown would not mean a broad contraction in CaixaBank's lending business.
Consumer credit is growing by 11% to 12% year on year. Gortázar expects that pace to ease somewhat in the coming months and next year. He still sees growth above 10%.
The segment has room to expand over the long term because demand remains strong and confidence is holding up. Home finance is a different story. Many households now struggle to fund a purchase.
New housing loans also showed signs of cooling in July 2026: banks issued 43,372 new mortgages, 3.5% fewer than a year earlier. The average rate on new mortgages reached 3.01%, its highest level since January 2025, reinforcing the pressure created by both prices and borrowing costs.
Business lending has also performed better than expected, according to the CaixaBank chief. Its results have exceeded what interest-rate movements might have suggested despite continuing uncertainty.
Companies are still investing and moving ahead. Demand for investment is tracking nominal GDP growth.
That part is holding up.
Gortázar identified risks linked to Iran, financial markets and artificial intelligence. He still described business demand as reasonable and said entrepreneurs must continue investing. The mortgage warning sits within a wider picture. Companies and consumers are still borrowing, even as housing finance becomes harder to sustain.
The cost of borrowing adds to the affordability problem. An earlier mortgage report described how higher benchmark rates can increase payments on variable loans.
Gortázar's forecast offers a banking-sector view of the same pressure. Buyers may remain interested, but prices and financing costs can stop that interest from becoming a signed mortgage. Official housing statistics show that the average price of free-market housing reached a record €2,355 per square metre in the second quarter of 2026. The gap between prices and household budgets has widened.
Artificial intelligence is also changing CaixaBank's internal operations. Gortázar said employees can save up to two hours a week on certain tasks involving information retrieval, management and delivery to customers.
He described AI as a productivity tool. He did not present it as a transformation of the entire organisation.
That may change as adoption expands. CaixaBank expects AI to help maintain current growth rates without adding staff in the same proportion. The technology could also reduce many outsourced processes, with a direct effect on employment.
Some positions may become vacant as productivity rises, Gortázar acknowledged.
For Spanish borrowers, the immediate problem is not a lack of desire to buy. It is the combined weight of prices and rates. For CaixaBank, stronger activity in other lending areas and higher productivity through AI offer support.
2027 may bring a sharper split in the market rather than a lending collapse. Mortgage growth is losing pace, while consumer credit is expected to stay above 10%.
