CaixaBank expects mortgage lending growth to slow in 2027 as home prices and borrowing costs put homeownership beyond reach for more buyers. Spain recorded 61,417 registered home sales in July 2026, about 5.1% fewer than a year earlier, official INE data show. Gonzalo Gortázar also cited higher current and long-term interest rates; markets are pricing in up to four further European Central Bank increases, which could take rates to 3.5%.
That pressure is already showing up in demand. Gortázar said many people want to buy a home but cannot afford today's prices. Affordability has become the basic limit on the housing market. The chief executive spoke at the Encuentro Financiero XVII forum organised by KPMG and Expansión.
The mortgage slowdown would not mean a broad contraction in CaixaBank's lending business.
Consumer credit is growing by 11% to 12% year on year. Gortázar expects that pace to ease somewhat in the coming months and next year, but still sees growth above 10%.
The segment has room to expand over the long term because demand remains strong and confidence is holding up. Home finance faces a different constraint: many households now struggle to fund a purchase. New housing loans also showed signs of cooling in July 2026, when banks issued 43,372 new mortgages, 3.5% fewer than a year earlier. The average rate on new mortgages reached 3.01%, its highest level since January 2025, adding to the pressure from prices and borrowing costs.
Business lending has also performed better than expected, the CaixaBank chief said. Results have outpaced what interest-rate movements alone might have suggested despite continuing uncertainty.
Companies are still investing and moving ahead, with demand for investment tracking nominal GDP growth.
Gortázar identified risks linked to Iran and financial markets, along with artificial intelligence. He nevertheless described business demand as reasonable and said entrepreneurs must continue investing. Companies and consumers are still borrowing, even as housing finance becomes harder to sustain.
The cost of borrowing adds to the affordability problem. An earlier mortgage report described how higher benchmark rates can increase payments on variable loans.
Gortázar's forecast offers a banking-sector view of the same pressure. Buyers may remain interested, but prices and financing costs can prevent that interest from becoming a signed mortgage. Official housing statistics show that the average price of free-market housing reached a record €2,355 per square metre in the second quarter of 2026. The gap between prices and household budgets has widened.
Artificial intelligence is also changing CaixaBank's internal operations. Gortázar said employees can save up to two hours a week on certain tasks involving information retrieval and management, including delivery to customers.
He described AI as a productivity tool, not a change of the entire organisation.
That may change as adoption expands. CaixaBank expects AI to help maintain current growth rates without adding staff in the same proportion. The technology could also reduce many outsourced processes, with a direct effect on employment.
Some positions may become vacant as productivity rises, Gortázar acknowledged.
For Spanish borrowers, the immediate problem is the combined weight of prices and rates, not a lack of desire to buy. For CaixaBank, stronger activity in other lending areas and higher productivity through AI offer support.
