On 10 September, the European Central Bank raised its basic rates by 25 basis points for the second time this year, lifting market expectations. The Euribor is expected to close September at about 3.22%, its highest average level since July 2024. For Spanish borrowers whose mortgages are reviewed annually, the typical bill could rise by €828 a year.
For a €178,365 mortgage signed over 25 years with a one-point spread over the Euribor, the monthly payment would rise by €69 after an annual review, adding €828 over the year. With reviews every six months, the payment would rise by €65 a month, or €780 over the half-year.
Markets are still weighing the chance of further rate rises. The pressure increases with the loan size: a €300,000 mortgage under the same conditions would cost €115 more each month after an annual review, an increase of €1,380 over a year. For a six-month revision, the reported increase is €109 per month and €308 per semester.
September marks a sharp change from August, when the Euribor averaged 2.954%. A close near 3.22% would raise costs for borrowers whose contracts use the index to reset their interest rate. Public market estimates in September's final days put the preliminary average between roughly 3.202% and 3.251%, pointing to a result near 3.22%.
The Banco de España's official calendar says the monthly Euribor hipotecario statistic is published around the 20th day of the following month. The September average's effect on an individual loan so depends on the contract's revision date and the reference month specified in the mortgage agreement.
The ECB's decision took effect on 16 September 2026. The deposit facility rate moved to 2.50%, while the basic refinancing operations rate reached 2.65% and the marginal lending facility rate rose to 2.90%.
The deposit rate affects the Euribor and the cost of bank loans and credit cards. The index also reflects expectations about future monetary policy and the market cost of interbank funding, as the European Central Bank noted.
Christine Lagarde did not rule out further increases. The ECB president also declined to give guidance on future decisions.
The path ahead remains unclear, and borrowing costs may stay high rather than return soon to cheaper levels. Eurozone inflation reached 3.3% in August, its highest level since the start of the war in the Middle East.
Higher energy prices are feeding into transport and food costs, raising concern that the cost of living could climb further in the coming months. Markets have not ruled out more ECB action as officials seek to prevent a repeat of the inflation crisis that hit the region in 2022.
Josep Soler, founder and executive board member of EFPA España, links the Euribor's movement mainly to changing inflation expectations.
Ricardo Gulias, chief executive of mortgage intermediary RN Tu Solución Hipotecaria, says the latest 25-basis-point increase was largely expected. He says the new Euribor rise reflects a reassessment of how long eurozone rates may stay high.
Forecasts differ. Gulias expects the Euribor to end 2026 between 3.2% and 3.5%, citing uncertainty over ECB decisions amid concerns about energy prices and inflation. The panel assembled by Funcas takes a less severe view, expecting some moderation in the coming months and an end-of-year reading near 2.7%.
For mortgage holders, the effect depends on the outstanding balance, the loan spread and how often the rate is reviewed. The September reading will not affect every borrower at the same time: banks use the reference month and review schedule set out in each mortgage contract.
Families due for a payment update will see eurozone inflation and tighter monetary policy reflected in their monthly bills. Variable-rate borrowers remain directly exposed to decisions made in Frankfurt, with household costs rising while the Euribor stays above its August average.
