CaixaBank is selling more risky loan portfolios to investors to keep dividends steady, even as lending grows faster than expected. The bank aims for risk-weighted assets to rise much more slowly than its loan book.
CaixaBank is moving quickly to shift risk off its balance sheet, aiming to keep dividend payments strong while lending grows faster than planned. The bank has told analysts it will ramp up significant risk transfer (SRT) deals in the coming months, freeing up capital for new loans and shareholder payouts. Recent reports from Reuters and Bloomberg show CaixaBank is one of several large European banks increasing their use of SRTs, part of a wider industry trend.
In the second quarter, CaixaBank cut its risk-weighted assets by nearly €1 billion, mainly by selling a €2.5 billion portfolio of SME loans to investors. More SRT deals are coming, according to executives, with the goal of keeping risk-weighted asset growth well below the pace of new lending. The European Central Bank (ECB) noted in its September 2026 materials that the current environment favors SRT transactions, with regulators and banks focused on capital strength and risk management.
"Bloomberg reports that not only CaixaBank, but also Santander, BBVA, and Deutsche Bank have significantly increased their SRT deal volumes in 2026, confirming a sector-wide shift."
— Bloomberg
CaixaBank wants risk-weighted assets to grow at least 150 basis points slower than its loan book. This makes expansion cheaper and more profitable, letting the bank return more capital to shareholders through dividends and buybacks. JPMorgan estimates CaixaBank could return €17 billion to shareholders from 2026 to 2028, about 19% of its market value. Still, the ECB has warned banks to watch for systemic risks as SRT activity picks up across the sector.
Bank management is counting on strong market demand for SRT deals, pointing to high liquidity and investor interest. The International Association of Credit Portfolio Managers (IACPM) has reported a jump in SRT activity, with more banks using these deals to unlock capital for new lending. CaixaBank sees this as support for its strategy, especially as more banks turn to SRTs to back economic growth. The ECB says it is watching the trend closely, given possible risks from geopolitical and market shocks.
Not everyone is convinced. The ECB and International Monetary Fund have both raised concerns about SRTs, warning about refinancing risks and the movement of assets into less regulated parts of the market. Despite these warnings, SRT deal volumes keep rising, with banks of all sizes selling risk to investors.
"The IMF has previously cautioned that while SRT transactions can reduce risk-weighted assets, they may also shift credit risk into less regulated parts of the financial system, increasing concentration and refinancing risks off bank balance sheets."
— IMF
CaixaBank’s confidence is based on recent results. Its 2025–2027 plan forecast 4% loan growth for 2026, but by June, lending was already up 7.8%. Management expects to finish the year well above target, helped by Spain’s growing population and steady job market. Still, the bank is cautious, noting that outside risks could affect the Spanish economy and lending. The ECB raised key interest rates by 25 basis points on September 10, 2026, highlighting ongoing uncertainty and risks to growth and inflation—factors that could shape future dividend policies.
How much CaixaBank relies on SRTs will depend on credit demand in the second half of the year. The first six months have already beaten expectations, suggesting the bank’s risk transfer push is not just defensive but a way to get ahead in a growing market. This mirrors how other Spanish companies are adapting quickly to changing financial conditions, as seen in recent retail sector shifts.
CaixaBank is willing to challenge regulatory doubts and double down on SRTs to drive both growth and shareholder returns. While the risks flagged by the ECB and IMF are real, the bank’s approach so far has been careful and timely. In a market where many lenders hesitate, CaixaBank is moving first—turning risk into capital and capital into an edge. In today’s Spanish banking sector, caution alone is not enough to stay ahead.
