CaixaBank is moving quickly to shift risk off its balance sheet and keep dividend payments strong as lending grows faster than planned. The bank has told analysts it will ramp up impressive risk transfer (SRT) deals in the coming months, freeing capital for new loans and shareholder payouts. Recent reports from Reuters and Bloomberg show that CaixaBank is among several large European banks increasing its use of SRTs as part of a wider industry trend.
In the second quarter, CaixaBank cut its risk-weighted assets by nearly €1 billion, mainly by selling investors a €2.5 billion portfolio of SME loans. Executives say more SRT deals are coming, with the aim of keeping risk-weighted asset growth well below the pace of new lending. In its September 2026 materials, the European Central Bank (ECB) noted that current conditions favor SRT transactions as regulators and banks focus on capital strength and risk management.
"Bloomberg reports that not only CaixaBank, but also Santander, BBVA, and Deutsche Bank have significantly increased their SRT deal volumes in 2026, confirming a sector-wide shift."
Source: Bloomberg
CaixaBank wants risk-weighted assets to grow at least 150 basis points more slowly than its loan book. That makes expansion cheaper and more profitable, allowing the bank to return more capital to shareholders through dividends and buybacks. JPMorgan estimates CaixaBank could return €17 billion to shareholders from 2026 to 2028, about 19% of its market value. The ECB has also warned banks to watch for systemic risks as SRT activity rises across the sector.
Bank management is counting on strong demand for SRT deals, pointing to high liquidity and investor interest. The International Association of Credit Portfolio Managers (IACPM) has reported a jump in SRT activity, with more banks using these deals to unlock capital for new lending. CaixaBank sees this as support for its strategy, as more banks turn to SRTs to back economic growth. The ECB says it is watching the trend closely because of possible risks from geopolitical and market shocks.
The ECB and International Monetary Fund have both raised concerns about SRTs, warning of refinancing risks and assets moving into less regulated parts of the market. Despite those warnings, SRT deal volumes continue to rise, with banks of all sizes selling risk to investors.
"The IMF has previously cautioned that while SRT transactions can reduce risk-weighted assets, they may also shift credit risk into less regulated parts of the financial system, increasing concentration and refinancing risks off bank balance sheets."
Source: IMF
CaixaBank’s confidence rests on recent results. Its 2025-2027 plan forecast 4% loan growth for 2026, but lending was already up 7.8% by June. Management expects to finish the year well above target, helped by Spain’s growing population and steady job market. The bank also notes that external risks could affect the Spanish economy and lending. On September 10, 2026, the ECB raised basic interest rates by 25 basis points, citing ongoing uncertainty and risks to growth and inflation, factors that could shape future dividend policies.
How much CaixaBank relies on SRTs will depend on credit demand in the second half of the year. The first six months have already beaten expectations, suggesting the bank’s risk transfer push is defensive while also positioning it to get ahead in a growing market. This echoes how other Spanish companies are adapting to changing financial conditions, as seen in recent retail sector shifts.
CaixaBank is willing to challenge regulatory doubts and double down on SRTs to lead growth and shareholder returns. The risks flagged by the ECB and IMF are real, though the bank’s approach so far has been careful and timely. Many lenders remain hesitant; CaixaBank is moving first, turning risk into capital and capital into an edge. Caution alone may not be enough to stay ahead in Spain’s banking sector.
