Spanish drivers could soon see diesel at 2.40 euros per litre. With government aid ending and refineries closing, fuel costs may jump within weeks.
Filling up a diesel car in Spain is about to get much more expensive. Motor journalist Juan Francisco Calero warns that if things keep going this way, diesel could soon cost 2.40 euros per litre. That would make a 50-litre tank hit 120 euros. This is not some far-off risk. It could happen in the next few weeks, depending on whether the government extends its fuel subsidies in October.
Why is this happening? Two things: government support is ending, and Europe’s fuel supply is changing. Spanish drivers have had tax breaks and discounts at the pump, like lower VAT and per-litre rebates. These were meant to soften the blow of inflation, but they are set to run out between September and October. When these discounts end and taxes go back to normal, diesel prices will jump. This will happen no matter what crude oil does on the world market. Right now, the government discount is 20 cents per litre for diesel and 5 cents for gasoline. These measures are set to end on September 30, 2026, unless the government decides to keep them.
Industry estimates suggest that after the end of the diesel subsidy, the price at the pump could rise by about 24.2–24.4 cents per litre, exceeding the nominal value of the current discount due to tax and market structure.
But it’s not just about government policy. Calero points out that Europe has closed many oil refineries, especially those that made diesel. Now, Europe depends on importing diesel from outside the EU. This makes the market more exposed to global supply problems and rising demand from trucking, shipping, and heavy industry. The cost to make and move diesel has gone up, and drivers are paying for it. The Spanish Ministry of Energy says diesel was already close to 1.89 euros per litre by mid-September 2026. That’s a big jump in just a few weeks.
For Spanish drivers, the price at the pump is no longer just about Brent crude. The final cost now includes required biofuel blends, higher margins for oil companies, and more expensive logistics inside Spain. All of these have gone up. Calero says these are now the main reasons for what people pay at the pump, not just oil prices. Industry sources say if the support measures end, filling a 50–55 litre tank could cost 12–13 euros more.
Geopolitics are making things worse. The conflict in the Middle East, especially near the Strait of Ormuz, has made oil shipping riskier. Tankers have to take longer, more expensive routes. Insurance for shipping has also gone up. Calero says Spanish stations are not likely to run out of diesel, but the cost to get fuel to market will keep rising.
The International Road Transport Union (IRU) highlights that September 30 is a critical date not only for Spain but also for several EU countries, as various tax and subsidy measures expire simultaneously, potentially increasing pressure on fuel prices and the transport sector.
Some people are thinking about switching to electric cars. New rules have made it easier to install home chargers, as reported earlier. But for millions who still rely on diesel, the next few months could change the cost of daily travel.
With fuel aid ending and key refineries closed, Spain is entering a new phase. Diesel prices are now shaped by global shipping, regulatory costs, and world politics—not just oil markets. For drivers, cheap diesel could soon be a thing of the past unless the government steps in or the market changes fast. The way fuel gets to Spanish drivers is changing, and the effects will reach far beyond the gas station.
