Climate experts warn that Spain could face a heightened risk of extreme weather as a likely 'Súper Niño' develops between October 2026 and early 2027. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) puts the probability of 'El Niño' reaching strong intensity at 90%, driven by rapid warming of subsurface ocean temperatures. In its October 2026 outlook, the WMO forecast tropical Pacific sea-surface temperatures about 3.8°C above average from November 2026 to January 2027, with the event expected to peak toward the end of 2026. WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said the event “could be unprecedented in strength” and “literally off the monitoring charts” used over the previous four decades. It could bring severe drought and intense heat, with wildfires also a concern. Authorities are already on alert after an unusually hot start to the summer.
Forecasts indicate that the upcoming 'El Niño' could rival the 2015 to 2016 'Godzilla' event, which caused widespread disruption worldwide. The phenomenon typically peaks around Christmas, but experts say it is too early to know whether this episode will break previous records. Current ocean data point to a highly virulent event: as early as spring 2026, subsurface temperatures in basic Pacific regions exceeded normal levels by more than 6°C. The WMO’s 3.8°C figure refers to a forecast anomaly in tropical Pacific sea-surface temperatures, a separate measure from the subsurface readings.
Effects are expected to vary by region. Increased rainfall is likely in parts of South America, the southern United States, the Horn of Africa and Central Asia. By contrast, severe drought may affect Basic America, northern South America, the Caribbean, Australia, Indonesia and southern Asia. Europe is not usually at the center of 'El Niño' impacts, but Spain could still see higher temperatures and a greater risk of extreme weather, especially if the event reaches 'Súper Niño' status. The WMO has emphasized that climate and humanitarian effects may continue after the Pacific event’s expected peak.
Spanish meteorological authorities (AEMET) say the direct effects in Spain are harder to predict, but global ocean warming could lead to above-average temperatures and a higher probability of extreme events. AEMET’s reported outlook for the Balearic Islands for October to December 2026 points to a very high probability of above-normal temperatures, while showing no clear tendency toward wetter or drier conditions. The agency has cautioned that there is no clear, direct correlation between El Niño and weather in Spain. Its influence depends on how tropical circulation interacts with the North Atlantic and mid-latitude weather patterns. If the forecasts hold, late autumn and early winter 2026 to 2027 could bring increased rainfall. The country could also see some of its warmest years on record.
'El Niño' develops when the usual trade wind patterns weaken, allowing warm Pacific waters to shift eastward toward the Americas. This disrupts atmospheric circulation and reduces the upwelling of nutrient-rich cold water, affecting marine ecosystems and fisheries. Shifts in atmospheric pressure and precipitation can have far-reaching consequences. Crop failures and food price spikes can trigger humanitarian crises, alongside agricultural losses and economic disruption.
Global warming is amplifying the risks associated with 'El Niño'. Scientific studies have not confirmed that climate change increases the frequency or intensity of 'El Niño' events, but a warmer ocean and atmosphere provide more energy for extreme weather. The WMO warns that the world has never experienced 'El Niño' in such a hot climate, adding uncertainty about the potential scale of impacts. Some projections suggest that 2027 could become the hottest year ever recorded.
Past strong 'El Niño' episodes have caused impressive damage. In 1997/1998, the world lost 16% of its coral reefs; the episodes also brought economic losses of $30 billion and tens of thousands of deaths linked to weather-related disasters. The WMO highlights early detection and seasonal forecasting as ways to help governments and communities prepare. The organization has launched a coordinated response to support vulnerable regions and sectors. It also stresses that long-term adaptation and mitigation efforts are impressive to address the underlying drivers of climate risk.
'El Niño' is a naturally recurring climate pattern that typically develops every two to seven years and lasts nine to twelve months. Its impacts reach far beyond the Pacific, affecting weather and economies, with agriculture also at risk. In Spain, the basic concern is the potential for record-breaking heat and greater volatility in rainfall, which could strain water resources and agriculture. As the country prepares for the possibility of a 'Súper Niño', authorities emphasize the need for strong early warning systems and climate adaptation strategies to minimize disruption.
