A powerful 'El Niño' is forecast for late 2026, raising the risk of severe drought, wildfires and heatwaves. Spanish authorities are preparing for possible record temperatures and economic impacts.
Spain faces a heightened threat of extreme weather as climate experts warn of a likely 'Súper Niño' event between October 2026 and early 2027. According to the World Meteorological Organization (OMM), there is a 90% probability that 'El Niño' will reach strong intensity, driven by rapid warming of subsurface ocean temperatures. This scenario could trigger severe droughts, intense heatwaves, and a surge in wildfires, with authorities already on alert after an unusually hot start to the summer.
Forecasts indicate that the upcoming 'El Niño' could rival the intensity of the 2015–2016 'Godzilla' event, which caused widespread disruption globally. While the phenomenon typically peaks around Christmas, experts caution that it is too early to confirm if this episode will break previous records. However, current oceanic data suggest a highly virulent event, with subsurface temperatures in key Pacific regions exceeding normal levels by more than 6ºC as early as spring 2026.
Regionally, the effects are expected to vary. Increased rainfall is likely in parts of South America, the southern United States, the Horn of Africa, and Central Asia. In contrast, Central America, northern South America, the Caribbean, Australia, Indonesia, and southern Asia may experience severe drought. Although Europe is not usually at the center of 'El Niño' impacts, Spain could still see higher temperatures and a greater risk of extreme weather, especially if the event reaches 'Súper Niño' status.
Spanish meteorological authorities (AEMET) note that while direct effects in Spain are less predictable, the global nature of ocean warming could lead to above-average temperatures and a higher probability of extreme events. If the forecasts hold, late autumn and early winter 2026–2027 could bring increased rainfall and some of the warmest years on record for the country.
The mechanics of 'El Niño' involve a breakdown in the usual trade wind patterns, allowing warm Pacific waters to shift eastward toward the Americas. This disrupts atmospheric circulation and halts the upwelling of nutrient-rich cold water, impacting marine ecosystems and fisheries. The resulting changes in atmospheric pressure and precipitation patterns can have far-reaching consequences, including agricultural losses, economic disruption, and humanitarian crises linked to crop failures and food price spikes.
Global warming is amplifying the risks associated with 'El Niño'. While scientific studies have not confirmed that climate change increases the frequency or intensity of 'El Niño' events, the combination of a warmer ocean and atmosphere provides more energy for extreme weather. The OMM warns that the world has never experienced 'El Niño' in such a hot climate, raising uncertainty about the potential scale of impacts. Some projections suggest that 2027 could become the hottest year ever recorded.
Past strong 'El Niño' episodes have caused significant damage, including the loss of 16% of the world's coral reefs in 1997/1998, economic losses of $30 billion, and tens of thousands of deaths linked to weather-related disasters. The OMM highlights the importance of early detection and seasonal forecasting to help governments and communities prepare. The organization has launched a coordinated response to support vulnerable regions and sectors, but stresses that long-term adaptation and mitigation efforts are essential to address the underlying drivers of climate risk.
For context, 'El Niño' is a naturally recurring climate pattern that typically develops every two to seven years and lasts nine to twelve months. Its impacts are global, affecting weather, agriculture, and economies far beyond the Pacific. In Spain, the main concern is the potential for record-breaking heat and increased volatility in rainfall, which could strain water resources and agriculture. As the country prepares for the possibility of a 'Súper Niño', authorities emphasize the need for robust early warning systems and climate adaptation strategies to minimize disruption.
