Dogs are the basic domestic reservoirs linked to human infection from Leishmania infantum in the region; sand flies spread the parasite. Seroprevalence and incidence vary over time and place, with risk shaped by climate and ecology, as well as social and environmental conditions. PLANET4HEALTH is developing a system across Spain and Portugal that will bring scattered environmental and health records together to forecast where conditions may become more favourable for transmission.
The system will use older records and near-real-time measurements of temperature and humidity, alongside rainfall and soil moisture. It will also assess broader climate variables and sand fly monitoring, while drawing on veterinary diagnostic records and serological results for leishmaniosis. Registered CanL cases will be included, along with information on the domestic dog population.
By connecting signals that usually sit in separate surveillance systems, the project aims to give officials and veterinary services a clearer view of short-term changes in disease risk.
Statistical and machine-learning models will track seasonal changes in sand fly activity, estimate the risk of canine leishmaniosis and produce short-term forecasts for specific areas.
The structure is also intended to support future projections. The project is developing, refining and assessing it through its first case study, rather than presenting it as a finished public service.
Earlier and ongoing national and European sand fly surveillance efforts will provide part of the data. Other sources include veterinary clinical and diagnostic databases in Portugal and Spain, as well as national public health monitoring systems.
Formal data-sharing agreements will support the work, bringing together information on animal and human health, along with indirect indicators of canine disease. The project uses a One Health approach, studying the interactions among dogs and vectors, alongside people and the environment, within one analytical structure.
An earlier health report examined a similar surveillance question: how infectious risks can be identified before they become harder to manage.
PLANET4HEALTH will also involve veterinarians and public health authorities, along with other intended users. They will review the results through questionnaires and online feedback, then meet in co-creation workshops. Their feedback will help assess whether the system is useful and feasible in real operational settings.
Climate change and environmental degradation, along with greater movement of people and animals, could expand the vector's distribution and raise transmission risk. The proposed system links immediate monitoring with longer-term projections, without treating canine leishmaniosis as a fixed Mediterranean problem.
The structure brings together evidence from climate and entomological research, alongside veterinary and public health sources, for users to test in practice. If it produces reliable spatial forecasts, it could improve proactive risk management and offer a model for other endemic regions. For now, the basic achievement is the construction and evaluation of the structure. It offers a more credible route to preparedness than relying on isolated diagnoses after transmission has occurred.
