The Ibex 35 rebounds as weaker US hiring eases rate fears. G7 oil reserves add relief, while banks and Repsol lag behind.
September's US jobs report showed only 29,000 new non-farm jobs. Unemployment rose to 4.2%, and wage growth slowed. The figures eased pressure on markets after a rise in bond yields had shaken investor confidence and raised financing costs. Solaria leads the Spanish index. Repsol and parts of the banking sector moved the other way.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics supplied the immediate trigger. The weak labour data strengthened the possibility of a Federal Reserve pause in October. Investors have also stopped fully pricing another rate increase in 2026.
Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson said on 1 October that unemployment had remained around 4.1% during the summer and that the US labour market had moved sideways in 2026.
That shift matters. Lower expected rates can pull down bond yields and support company valuations. The effect is strongest for businesses that need large investments and expect returns over many years.
Cellnex, ACS and Merlin join Solaria among the companies benefiting from the softer financing outlook. Their projects depend on long-term funding. Cheaper money helps.
The relief is real but limited.
Inflation has not disappeared. Markets cannot treat monetary tightening as finished. The best outcome would be a controlled slowdown in employment that restrains prices without badly hurting household spending or company profits. A sharper downturn would change the calculation quickly.
The G7 agreement covers a coordinated release of 100 million barrels of oil and diesel reserves through the International Energy Agency over four months. A large part of the diesel supply is due to arrive during the first 20 days of the operation.
Energy provides a second lift. Emmanuel Macron announced that the G7 will release up to 100 million barrels of emergency oil and diesel reserves over the next four months. The operation will run through the International Energy Agency.
The Élysée Palace said the plan should help contain energy prices. A large diesel release is due during the first 20 days. The measure could ease supply tensions and limit prices. Its effect will depend on how fast the reserves reach the market and how the conflict develops.
That helps explain the split inside the Ibex 35. Repsol falls as crude prices decline. Cheaper energy could later cut costs for companies and households and protect spending power. For investors, the trade-off is simple. Lower oil prices hurt producers in the short term but can help energy-intensive businesses.
Unicaja and Sabadell are among the banking laggards. Lower rate expectations may reduce the boost banks receive from wider interest margins. More affordable borrowing could still support credit demand and help customers meet repayments. Deposits, economic activity and bad loans will decide which effect prevails.
Possible data-centre projects are also drawing interest to Solaria, Cellnex, ACS and Merlin. Their businesses require heavy investment, and their income arrives over long periods. Lower financing costs improve the setting for new projects and reduce the discount applied to future profits.
That advantage is not automatic. Each company still has to show that the investment will produce an adequate return.
Beyond Spain, Nike has again pushed back hopes of a recovery. Forecasts point to a high-single-digit sales decline in its 2027 financial year. The weakness may continue in 2028. China remains a problem, and the company's sports-fashion offer has struggled.
Cost savings may defend margins. Nike still needs stronger sales and a more attractive brand to restore growth. European political risk also remains part of the background, as an earlier European dispute showed.
France remains a source of pressure in European debt markets. That limits the strength of Friday's recovery. The Ibex 35 has gained breathing space, not a clean all-clear.
Weaker US hiring, lower financing pressure and possible energy relief support prices. Inflation and debt concerns remain. Corporate prospects are uneven. The rebound is a credible reprieve, not yet a lasting change in direction.
