The Ibex is seeking a late-quarter recovery as oil prices and bond yields ease. Investors are awaiting the United States private consumption deflator for August, due at 14:30 Spanish time. The underlying rate is expected to hold at 3.3%, a figure that could shape the quarter's final sessions.
At that level, inflation would remain above 3%. Markets already price in another Federal Reserve interest-rate increase at the October meeting.
INE's preliminary estimate put Spain's September inflation rate at 4.9% year on year. Fuels and lubricants for cars were the basic drivers of the increase.
The Ibex has recorded four losing sessions in the past five. Relief is coming first from energy markets. Brent traded below 103 dollars intraday after reaching 107 dollars at the start of the previous session.
Signs of recovering crude exports from the Middle East have eased supply concerns. The latest oil rally has stalled for now. Late-September market reports put Brent near 104.7 dollars, after earlier readings above 105 to 106 dollars. European shares remain closely tied to those moves.
Oil is setting the tone.
Bond markets are easing, too. The US 10-year Treasury yield has pulled back to the 5.20% threshold, while Germany's 10-year Bund yield has fallen below 3.60%. The Boston Herald reported that the US 10-year Treasury yield was around 5.17 to 5.20% in late September and had risen to multi-year highs during the week. That backdrop supports a higher-for-longer outlook and limits the repricing of risky assets, even when yields fall in the short term.
Spain's 10-year bond yield has slipped under 4.10%, easing some pressure on equities. Recent Spanish-market readings were still above 4%, roughly between 4.06% and 4.14%. The retreat has not ended broader financing pressure.
For now, the move is enough to put the Spanish index near 19,600 points. A close there would give the Ibex a small quarterly gain, above the 19,471 points recorded at the end of June.
September would still be a losing month. The index remains below August's 19,974-point finish. Recent market updates placed the benchmark in a volatile 19,500 to 19,700-point range, with readings of 19,517.5, 19,650.7 and 19,708.2 points.
The index is still swinging.
Acciona and Acciona Energía are among the strongest performers. IAG is benefiting from the pause in crude prices. Inditex is supporting the index through its market weight.
Repsol is lagging as oil loses momentum. Cellnex and Telefónica are also among the weaker names. Market coverage points to the pullback in oil and yields as the short-term driver for these Iberian equities, rather than a clear improvement in the wider economy.
Across Europe, the pattern is similar. The French Cac is holding above 8,000 points. The pan-European Stoxx 600 is trying to stay above 640 points.
September is still set to be the Stoxx 600's first monthly decline in six months. Investors are also completing their quarter-end portfolio adjustments.
Some individual shares have moved much more sharply. Tullow Oil has fallen as much as 35% after losing a legal dispute over almost 200 million dollars in taxes in Ghana. WDP is down close to 5% after announcing a capital increase priced at a 4.7% discount.
The retreat in oil and bond yields matters beyond listed shares. It also affects Spain's investment debate, including the earlier biomethane report on projects moving toward investment.
Lower financing and energy costs are helping equities for now. The inflation reading could quickly erase that relief. Market coverage citing Spain's preliminary INE data says the rise in consumer prices has added pressure to domestic bond yields. It has also made Spanish assets more sensitive to energy costs.
The recovery remains narrow. The Ibex can finish the quarter slightly higher only if softer oil prices and lower yields offset the risk from persistent US inflation.
The 14:30 release is the day's basic reference point. The rebound depends on data investors cannot control.
