Junts per Catalunya’s seven seats in the Congress of Deputies made it basic to Pedro Sánchez’s 2023 investiture. Since then, the party has become a central factor in Madrid’s parliamentary instability. Sánchez was re-elected on 16 November 2023 by 179 votes to 171, with support from PSOE, Sumar, ERC, Junts, EH Bildu, PNV, BNG and Coalición Canaria. Junts backed his investiture but stayed outside the governing coalition, leaving it free to negotiate or oppose measures on a vote-by-vote basis. The government has struggled to secure reliable parliamentary support, with Junts withholding approval even for the first-year budget.
Junts’ position as a swing vote has sharpened the challenges facing the coalition. The agreement that secured the party’s support included a commitment to an amnesty, an international verification mechanism and provisions concerning alleged judicial “lawfare.” Those commitments did not bind Junts to subsequent government policy: its seven deputies retained separate political incentives and could oppose later measures. Persistent controversies and corruption debates, often highlighted by figures such as Alberto Núñez Feijóo and Santiago Abascal, have added to the pressure. Internal divisions on the left also leave the government more fragile.
Junts has focused on reclaiming its status as a leading force of the Catalan right rather than offering dependable support to the government. The party has complicated the coalition’s efforts even as the government pardoned and later granted amnesty to leaders of the 2017 independence movement, including Junts president Carles Puigdemont. The amnesty commitment in the 2023 investiture deal was one part of a negotiated arrangement, not an agreement to join the government. The government has also worked to counter the anti-Catalan sentiment promoted by PP and Vox since the 2006 Statute of Autonomy reforms.
Recent polling points to a decline in Junts’ projected support, though the figures are estimates, not election results. A Centre d’Estudis d’Opinió barometer published on 14 October put Junts at 10.3% of the Catalan vote and projected four to five congressional seats, down from the seven it won in the 2023 general election. The same survey put PSC first at 29.6% and ERC second at 19%; ERC was projected to win 10 to 11 seats in Congress, ahead of Junts. The provincial picture varied: in Barcelona, Junts was projected at 7.98%, close to Vox at 8.24%, while in Lleida Junts, ERC and PSC were described as being in a technical tie.
Junts’ electoral exposure is also evident in Girona. CEO-based polling put the party at 10.86% in direct vote intention there, compared with its 19.58% vote share and two seats in the 2023 general election. In Barcelona, its 7.98% polling estimate fell short of its 9.68% result in 2023, when it won three seats. These constituency estimates suggest Junts’ support varies across Catalonia, with competition from PSC and ERC as well as parties on the Spanish right.
Junts’ role in sustaining instability that may benefit PP and Vox, despite the coalition’s concessions to Catalan interests, has drawn notice. The party’s strategy appears aimed at regaining support among right-leaning Catalan voters, while its parliamentary use depends on the balance of seats and its willingness to negotiate. A wider CEO projection, summarized by Barcelona Press, put right-wing forces at between 65 and 71 seats in the Catalan Parliament but described cooperation between Junts and Aliança Catalana as an obstacle to a straightforward pact. Gains for the right so do not automatically produce a unified governing bloc.
Junts’ shift away from its moderate roots began under Puigdemont’s leadership during the 2017 independence push. By adopting ERC’s separatist agenda and partnering with the anti-system CUP, the party moved away from its founding identity. The resulting legal crisis led to prison sentences and exile for several leaders, fracturing its base. Many former supporters have since turned to abstention, ERC, PP, Vox or new political figures such as Sílvia Orriols.
In response, Junts has sharpened its rhetoric, repeatedly asserting its claim to represent Catalonia. Its current trajectory contrasts with the era of Jordi Pujol, when Convergència Democràtica de Catalunya was widely seen as Catalonia’s voice. The broader independence movement has also contracted: a Generalitat-linked study, the Informe Autogovern 2025, put support for independence at 31% in 2025, down from approximately 48-49% in 2017. Junts must distinguish itself in a fragmented political field while competing for support beyond voters who remain committed to independence.
Spanish politics reflects similar tensions within other parties. The Partido Popular, for example, has recently faced internal criticism over its opposition strategy, as detailed in a recent analysis of PP's leadership challenges. These dynamics reflect the volatility shaping Spain’s current parliamentary environment.
Spain’s political system often relies on regional parties to form stable governments, making groups such as Junts especially impressive. The party’s projected decline from seven congressional seats to four or five could reduce its national parliamentary use, while provincial polling shows it remains competitive in parts of Catalonia. How Junts handles its identity and negotiations may shape future coalition arithmetic in Madrid and political competition in Catalonia.
