The EU Court will rule on amnesty, putting Junts per Catalunya under pressure. The party must decide between aligning with PP and Vox or taking a centrist path. Recent polls show voter uncertainty and shifting loyalties.
The political future of Junts per Catalunya is at a turning point as the Tribunal de Justicia de la Unión Europea (TJUE) prepares to deliver its verdict on the amnesty issue. This decision, expected tomorrow, comes at a critical moment for the party, which is navigating both the upcoming municipal elections in Catalonia and a period of internal uncertainty over its political direction.
Junts is currently split between two strategies: a moderate approach, as seen in Barcelona, and a more hardline stance that mirrors Aliança Catalana in non-metropolitan areas. In the national parliament, the party alternates between supporting the coalition government and casting votes alongside PP and Vox, further blurring its political identity. This ambiguity, once considered an asset for the party’s predecessor Convergència, now appears to be a liability. Recent data from the CEO indicates that voters perceive this lack of clarity as a crisis of direction, with half of Junts’ former supporters now dispersed and a significant portion leaning toward Aliança Catalana.
The erosion of Junts’ dominance in Catalan politics can be traced back to the anti-austerity protests during Artur Mas’s government and the subsequent fallout from the procés. Attempts to rebuild influence through a rigid stance on national issues have led to weakened institutions and a shift in public priorities away from territorial disputes. The prospect of a “Puigdemont effect”—whether through his return or continued absence—offers little hope of restoring the party’s former centrality. The political landscape in both Catalonia and Spain has fundamentally changed, with debates now focusing on social rights and democratic standards rather than solely on regional autonomy.
As the right-wing in both Spain and Catalonia adopts more radical positions, Junts faces a stark choice. The party can align with PP and Vox to challenge the government and compete with Aliança Catalana for local power, but this path risks undermining basic democratic principles. Alternatively, Junts could position itself as a democratic center-right force, prioritizing the defense of rights and institutions even if it means distancing itself from Aliança Catalana and supporting government stability in parliament, such as by enabling the passage of the national budget. This approach may seem inconsistent with the party’s recent rhetoric but would reinforce the foundations that allow all political options, including Junts, to operate freely.
The dilemma facing Junts is not unique in Spanish politics. Similar tensions have surfaced in other regions, as seen when Catalonia’s parliament moved to restrict speculative housing purchases, sparking sharp political divisions and highlighting the challenges of balancing local interests with broader democratic values. For more on how Catalan parties have navigated contentious reforms, see this analysis of recent legislative moves in the region.
Looking ahead, the outcome of the TJUE’s ruling and Junts’ subsequent decisions will have significant implications for Catalonia’s political stability and the broader Spanish landscape. The party’s choice will not only shape its own future but could also influence the direction of center-right politics in Spain at a time when democratic norms are under increasing pressure across Europe. The coming weeks will reveal whether Junts can redefine itself as a credible, democratic force or if it will continue to struggle with internal divisions and shifting voter loyalties.
