At Thursday's opening on 1 October, the Ibex 35 fell 0.9%, slipping below 19.300 points to 19.251. Only Indra and Solaria were in positive territory. Investors weighed Trump's warning on Iran and the risk that developments in the Middle East could push oil prices higher. Europa Press linked the weak European opening to energy costs and a wider geopolitical risk premium.
Donald Trump said the United States was nearing a decision on Iran. His administration could reach an agreement to end the war or choose direct escalation. He also said the conflict around the Strait of Hormuz would end very soon, without saying which path Washington would take.
Al Jazeera's live coverage described the comments as a sign that diplomatic and military moves were unfolding at the same time.
Iranian authorities said on Wednesday that they had received an official US response, delivered through intermediaries, to Tehran’s proposal to end the conflict and return openly to negotiations.
The uncertainty quickly reached the energy market, even though crude prices initially moved only slightly. Traders remain alert to any disruption in the Strait of Hormuz because the route carries a impressive share of global oil shipments. A change in its status could add a risk premium to prices.
Brent crude rose 0.1% at the start of European trading to 98.2 dollars per barrel. West Texas Intermediate, the US benchmark, was unchanged at 90.4 dollars. CNBC reported that Brent was trading between 97 and 98 dollars and WTI around 89 to 90 dollars on 1 October.
Markets were weighing the chance of restored Middle East shipments against continuing geopolitical tension. Oil moved little; equities took the harder hit.
Indra advanced 1.1% within the Ibex 35. Solaria gained 1%. Other leading risers were absent from the opening picture, leaving most of the index under selling pressure. Sabadell recorded the steepest decline at 1.7%. Cellnex fell 1.42%. Unicaja dropped 1.41%, while Caixabank lost 1.35%.
Oil & Gas Journal reported that Brent had risen above 108 dollars per barrel late in September before retreating as reports emerged of a possible phased agreement. An Iranian proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for concessions from the United States also emerged. The earlier volatility helps explain why traders remain highly sensitive to every diplomatic signal.
Banks took much of the immediate damage. Sabadell fell as other major European markets opened lower. Unicaja and Caixabank also declined. The pressure was not limited to one Spanish company.
Investors were watching the talks alongside the risk of military escalation. That kept attention on how higher energy costs could affect growth and financing conditions, including inflation.
London dropped 1.1% at 9.09am. Paris and Milan lost 0.7%. Frankfurt fell 0.6%. The figures showed a broad move away from risk across Europe. Any disruption linked to the Strait of Hormuz could affect the oil market.
Contacts through intermediaries offered a possible route to de-escalation. Trump's public warnings pointed the other way.
The shift from the company-level labour story in the Ford Almussafes agreement shows how quickly the news agenda changed. Geopolitical risk has taken the focus. The shift is visible in the index and bank shares. Crude prices offer another signal.
Currency and bond markets also moved. The euro weakened against the dollar to 1.1316 dollars. Spain's ten-year bond yield rose to 4.163%. The weaker currency and higher borrowing costs showed that the shock had spread beyond equities.
Spain's market opened with more than a routine decline. The Ibex fell sharply, while oil stayed close to 100 dollars per barrel. Borrowing costs rose at the same time. Trump's unresolved choice over Iran remains the basic trigger in this report.
The Iranian response and contacts through intermediaries leave investors between two possibilities. Talks could lead to de-escalation. Further confrontation remains a risk. With only two Ibex companies in positive territory, risk dominated returns at the session's opening.
