Favorites and New Faces in the Race for the 2026 World Cup Golden Boot. The FIFA World Cup has kicked off with 48 teams and a record number of matches. All eyes are on the contest for the Golden Boot. Among the main contenders are Mbappé, Kane, Messi, and promising young talents.
The FIFA World Cup has kicked off in the USA, Canada, and Mexico, bringing together 48 national teams for the first time and promising a record number of goals. With the expanded format, special attention is focused on the race for the Golden Boot, the individual award for the tournament's top scorer. As noted by iGF Sportswriter Ross Kilvington, favorites are considered to be players whose teams are expected to advance deep into the tournament bracket, although history has seen exceptions.
This year, the main bets are on Kylian Mbappé, who already won the Golden Boot in 2022 and now has the chance to break Miroslav Klose’s all-time World Cup goal record. The French striker, now playing for Real Madrid, has scored 12 goals in two tournaments and maintains a high conversion rate. Among his main rivals are Harry Kane (England), the 2018 Golden Boot winner and the regular penalty taker for his national team, as well as Lionel Messi, who, despite all his titles, has never been the World Cup’s top scorer.
Among Spanish players, Mikel Oyarzabal and Lamine Yamal stand out. Both are included in the expanded list of contenders, and Yamal, despite his young age, has already impressed at Euro 2024. Spain is expected to go deep into the tournament, which increases the chances for its strikers. Other notable figures include Erling Haaland (Norway), Cristiano Ronaldo (Portugal), Ousmane Dembélé (France), Julián Álvarez (Argentina), and Vinicius Junior (Brazil). Each of them is capable of influencing the race for the top individual award.
Bookmakers and analysts are paying special attention to rising young talents who could make a breakthrough at this tournament. Among them are Michael Olise (France), Désiré Doué (France), and Arda Güler (Turkey). Olise had a standout season at Bayern Munich and only recently made his debut for the national team. Doué already holds two Champions League titles, while Güler stands out as a playmaker and assist provider, which could benefit the Turkish team, who have landed in a favorable group.
There have been instances in the tournament’s history when the Golden Boot winner came from a team that didn’t reach the final. For example, in 2014, James Rodríguez (Colombia) scored six goals despite his team’s exit in the quarterfinals. In 1994, Oleg Salenko (Russia) shared the award after scoring all six of his goals during the group stage. Six goals have been enough to win the top scorer race eight times; five and eight goals have each secured victory three times. Klose remains the all-time top scorer (16), while Just Fontaine still holds the record for most goals in a single tournament (13 in 1958).
This year, according to iGF Sportswriter, the expanded number of participants and increased matches may lead to new records. In Brazil’s group, for example, opponents will include Haiti, Morocco, and Scotland, theoretically boosting Vinícius Júnior’s chances for a strong start. At the same time, as noted in the RUSSPAIN feature on new rules and historic farewells at World Cup 2026, the tournament could be the last for stars like Messi and Ronaldo, adding extra intrigue to the race for individual awards (more on the start of the tournament).
For reference: the last ten Golden Boot winners are Kylian Mbappé (2022), Harry Kane (2018), James Rodríguez (2014), Thomas Müller (2010), Miroslav Klose (2006), Ronaldo (2002), Davor Šuker (1998), Oleg Salenko and Hristo Stoichkov (1994), Salvatore Schillaci (1990), Gary Lineker (1986). In 2026, the competition for this trophy promises to be the fiercest in decades.
