Early elections in Aragón have become an event with the potential to reshape not only the region’s political landscape, but that of all Spain. For the first time in the history of the autonomous community, voting is taking place outside the regular schedule, drawing increased attention. At stake is not just the presidency, but also the balance of power that will determine the future of major decisions for the region’s residents.
According to polls, the current head of Aragón, Jorge Azcón (PP), maintains his lead, but he will need support from other parties to form a majority. Vox emerges as the main contender for a partnership, and forecasts suggest it could significantly expand its representation. For the first time in years, this party may play a decisive role in forming the government.
Six main forces are competing for seats in parliament: PP, PSOE, Vox, Chunta Aragonesista, Teruel Existe, and Izquierda Unida–Movimiento Sumar. Three other parties—Partido Aragonés (PAR), Podemos–Alianza Verde, and Se Acabó la Fiesta—are attempting to surpass the minimum threshold for securing mandates, but their chances are considered slim.
Key figures
This time, attention is focused on five key figures that determine the progress and outcome of the elections. The first is 34: this is the number of seats required for an absolute majority in the 67-member Cortes of Aragón. Throughout history, no party has ever reached this threshold alone. All regional presidents have only come to power through coalitions and agreements. According to current polls, no single force is expected to approach this coveted number, making a PP and Vox alliance the most likely scenario, which would allow Jorge Azcón to remain in office.
The second important figure is 27. This is the number of seats PP could obtain if the forecasts prove accurate. For Azcón, this would be a step back, as the party secured 28 mandates in the previous elections. The reason for the early vote was disagreements with PSOE and Vox over the budget, but the attempt to strengthen positions may result in the need to seek compromises once again. If PP doesn’t expand its presence, Vox’s influence will only grow.
The third number, 17, concerns the fate of the Socialists. For PSOE, this could be its second-worst result in history if the party fails to secure at least 18 seats. The leader of the Socialists, Pilar Alegría, risks facing a significant drop in support, which would affect the entire structure of the opposition.
Growth of Vox and the struggle of minor parties
The fourth figure—14—represents the potential success of Vox. The party currently holds seven seats, but forecasts indicate they may double their presence, repeating the achievement they had previously in Extremadura. Such growth would make Vox a key player in negotiations and grant it real influence over shaping regional policy.
The fifth figure—3—is the minimum percentage of votes required to secure a seat in the province. For smaller parties like PAR, Podemos, and Se Acabó la Fiesta, this poses a real challenge. Overcoming this threshold means gaining a chance to participate in power-sharing, while failing to pass it leaves them sidelined from the region’s political life.
Polling stations operated from 9:00 to 20:00, after which vote counting began. Focus on the process remains high, as the results will determine who negotiates with whom over Aragón’s future. The question of whether the PP can do without Vox is still open, and possible coalitions are sparking heated debate among experts and ordinary residents.
Context and consequences
In recent years, Spain’s political scene has become increasingly fragmented. Regional elections often serve as a stage for unexpected alliances and new forces capable of changing the usual balance. In Aragón, the situation is complicated by the fact that no single party can expect an absolute majority, making negotiations and compromises inevitable.
Special attention is drawn to the rising popularity of Vox, reflecting the broader national trends. The strengthening of this party could lead to a review of many earlier decisions and shift the priorities of regional policy. At the same time, the fate of smaller parties remains uncertain: their success or failure may come as a surprise and impact the final distribution of power.
RUSSPAIN.COM previously discussed how the new rules for naturalized citizens and immigrants might affect the country’s political landscape. At that time, experts pointed out that the expansion of voting rights could shift the balance of power in elections and lead to unexpected outcomes. To learn more about how the rules of the game are changing and who gains the right to vote, see the previous article editorial staff.
Recalling the recent regional elections in other autonomous communities, similar scenarios have already unfolded in Extremadura and Castilla y León. There, too, no party was able to secure an absolute majority, and government formation depended on complex negotiations and unexpected alliances. In some cases, it was the smaller parties or new political movements that held the deciding “golden share,” determining who would lead the region. Similar processes are taking place in other parts of the country, underscoring the ongoing transformation of Spain’s political system and the growing significance of regional elections for the whole nation.
