In Extremadura, the political climate is growing increasingly tense ahead of early elections. The Partido Popular (PP) is on track to expand its representation in the regional parliament, but still falls short of an absolute majority by several seats. According to recent polls, PP is projected to win 30 seats — two more than in the previous legislature. Nevertheless, even with these gains, the party will be unable to form a government without support from Vox, which has significantly strengthened its position and nearly doubled its number of deputies.
The current regional leader and incumbent candidate, María Guardiola, has decided to postpone the elections until December, a move that caught many by surprise. The reason was a conflict with Vox, when Santiago Abascal’s party blocked the proposed budget and put forward its own alternative. This decision triggered a political crisis and the need for early elections, which will now determine who will govern the region in the coming years.
Polls indicate that Vox has made significant gains and could secure up to nine seats in parliament—nearly double its previous representation. This means that, despite growing support, PP remains reliant on the far-right to form a majority. The only alternative would be abstention by left-wing parties, but such a scenario seems unlikely given the current political tensions.
Meanwhile, the Socialists from PSOE are facing serious challenges. According to forecasts, the party could lose up to 11% of its voters to the PP and another 14.5% to the left-wing coalition Unidas por Extremadura. This threatens the Socialists’ position, putting them at risk of becoming a minority and losing influence over regional policymaking.
Overall, the upcoming elections in Extremadura promise to be among the most tense in recent years. The redistribution of votes among the main parties and the strengthened position of Vox are creating a new political reality, where neither side can be certain of victory without support from allies. The results of the vote could significantly shift the balance of power in the region and affect the future course of events.
