Fresh data from the January barometer by the Center for Sociological Research (CIS) has unexpectedly shaken up Spain’s political scene. If parliamentary elections were held today, the Socialists (PSOE) would receive 31.7% of the vote—almost nine points ahead of their main rivals, the People’s Party (PP). The latter, despite a slight increase, remain in second place with 23% support. Vox continues to hold third position with 17.7%. Sumar and Podemos follow, but their figures do not suggest they could seriously impact the overall balance.
This poll is the first of 2026 and was conducted in early January, at a time when Spaniards were focused not only on domestic affairs but also on major international events. Notably, during these days, global media was reporting on the US military operation in Venezuela and the arrest of President Nicolás Maduro on charges of drug trafficking and corruption. Against this backdrop, Spain’s political agenda did not recede but instead took on new dimensions.
Focus on domestic politics
Within the country, debate centered on a new mechanism for allocating financial resources among the regions. Negotiations between Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez and Catalan Republican leader Oriol Junqueras concluded with an agreement that could shift the balance of power between Madrid and Barcelona. This move sparked heated debate in parliament and beyond, since financing has always been one of the most sensitive topics in Spanish politics.
At the same time, details of a private exchange between Alberto Núñez Feijóo, the PP leader, and Carlos Mazón, head of the Valencian Community, emerged in the news cycle. Their messages came under scrutiny amid the aftermath of the devastating dana—a powerful weather system that hit Valencia in late October 2024. Many local residents are still grappling with the impact of the disaster, and ongoing political tensions only add fuel to the fire.
Parties’ Response
The poll results delivered a cold shower for the People’s Party. Despite all their efforts, the PP has failed to close the gap with the Socialists. What’s more, even a slight uptick in support for Vox signals that some voters are searching for alternatives to the traditional parties. Sumar and Podemos, while remaining in the background, continue to hold on to their niches, but their ability to shape a future coalition remains uncertain.
Interestingly, the party Se Acabó La Fiesta (SALF), led by MEP Alvise Pérez, appeared in the CIS ratings for the first time, receiving 1.8%. It’s a modest result, but the mere presence of a new political force on the scene could serve as a wake-up call for established players.
Context and Expectations
The January CIS barometer not only reflects current voter preferences, but also captures the public mood more broadly. After a string of headline-making events—both at home and abroad—Spaniards clearly feel exhausted by uncertainty. Issues of funding, regional differences, and foreign policy challenges remain in the spotlight.
However, Spain’s political scene is rarely predictable. Every new poll can change the rules of the game, and unexpected alliances and agreements may upend the usual order. There are still many months before possible elections, and no one dares to predict how the balance of power will shift. But one thing is clear: January 2026 has become the starting point for a new round of political battles.
