Spain is bracing for a sharp rise in temperatures next week, with the Agencia Estatal de Meteorología (AEMET) forecasting intense heat that could push thermometers above 40°C across large parts of the country. The agency flags a high risk, particularly around midday, and urges residents to take extra precautions.
The change in weather patterns is expected to become noticeable over the weekend. After several days of elevated temperatures in the eastern half of the peninsula, atmospheric conditions will again favor the arrival of very warm air masses from North Africa. They will bring dry air and suspended dust, adding to the heat.
AEMET says a strengthening high-pressure ridge over the Iberian Peninsula, along with a DANA (isolated depression at high levels) to the west, will shape the situation. Together, they are expected to lead a steady rise in temperatures across much of Spain and the Balearic Islands.
The heatwave is expected to begin in earnest on Saturday, July 18. Maximum temperatures will already be extremely high in inland Andalusia, especially in low-lying areas and major river valleys, where values near 40°C are likely. By Sunday, the heat will intensify and spread, with similar temperatures expected in parts of Castilla-La Mancha, the Tagus valley, and the interior of Mallorca.
From Monday onward, the forecast becomes less certain. Some southern regions may see a slight dip in temperatures, but heat will continue to build across most of the country, expanding the areas affected by extreme conditions.
Tuesday and Wednesday are expected to be the most challenging days. AEMET projects that temperatures could exceed 40°C across much of the southern interior and Mallorca. The valleys and depressions of Andalusia are likely to be hit hardest, with thermometers reaching between 42°C and 44°C. La Mancha may also record exceptionally high values, while the Ebro valley and other northeastern depressions could approach 39°C.
Beyond daytime highs, AEMET highlights the risk of tropical and even torrid nights, when temperatures stay high into the early hours. This can make rest difficult and raise health risks, particularly for vulnerable people, including older adults and those with chronic illnesses.
AEMET’s Meteoalerta system provides continuously updated information on hazardous weather in Spain for up to 72 hours. Alerts are organized by autonomous community and explain how expected conditions may evolve. The agency also publishes station-level observations, including hourly readings and daily extremes, allowing forecast temperatures to be distinguished from highs measured afterward.
The agency also warns that wildfire danger will rise sharply. Extreme heat and dry conditions, compounded by wind in some areas, will push fire risk to critical levels across many regions. Dry thunderstorms over mountain areas in the afternoons could further complicate the situation: lightning strikes may ignite new fires with little accompanying rainfall. Authorities are urging the public to exercise maximum caution in natural areas and avoid activities that could spark fires. The recent containment of the Los Gallardos wildfire in Almería, where authorities controlled the blaze and identified victims, shows the ongoing threat posed by such conditions; more details are available in this report on the Los Gallardos fire response.
The trend points to a very hot episode, but AEMET says its final intensity, geographic reach, and duration remain uncertain. How it develops will depend on the behavior of the DANA to the west and the strength of the subtropical ridge. The possible arrival of cooler air masses from higher latitudes is another factor.
Current projections suggest temperatures will gradually decrease from Thursday, July 23, across much of Spain. But, the southern third of the peninsula is expected to endure very high values for several more days. Subsequent reporting on AEMET’s 2026 summer assessment described 61 heatwave days in the Peninsula and Balearic Islands, alongside a separate five-day episode in the Canary Islands. The season’s mean temperature was reported as 24.5°C, the highest in AEMET’s records dating to 1961. Those full-season figures place the July forecast within a broader period of prolonged heat.
A separate European assessment later estimated 6,824 heat-related excess deaths in Spain over summer 2026. That estimate covers the season as a whole, not this individual forecast episode. Extreme heat can raise health risks and disrupt daily life. It also puts pressure on emergency services. Spain’s authorities continue to monitor conditions, issuing updated advisories as the event unfolds.
