Spain is bracing for a new surge of extreme heat as the Agencia Estatal de Meteorología (AEMET) warns of a potentially record-breaking episode starting Saturday, July 4. The alert covers much of the mainland and the Balearic Islands, with the most intense conditions expected in southern regions. Temperatures could reach 44°C in some areas, raising public health and safety concerns.
The forecast points to atmospheric blocking and a “dana” (isolated high-altitude depression) west of the peninsula, channeling exceptionally hot, dry air northward. Along with strong seasonal sunshine, this is expected to lead temperatures sharply higher and keep them elevated for several days. AEMET has urged the public to take precautions, especially during the hottest hours, and flagged greater risks for older adults and people with cardiovascular conditions, as well as outdoor workers. Persistently warm nights can also leave the body with less chance to recover from daytime heat.
Temperatures are expected to start rising noticeably between Friday, July 3, and Saturday, July 4. Most regions will see moderate increases, with the sharpest rises in the interior north and western Galicia. By Saturday, highs of 36-38°C are forecast for the Ebro and Miño valleys, while the southwest quadrant could reach 38-40°C. Temperatures may exceed those levels in the Tajo and Guadiana valleys, as well as the Guadalquivir valley. On Sunday, July 5, the heat is likely to intensify, with further increases in the north: temperatures in the Miño valley and interior Galicia, along with the Ebro valley, could approach 40°C. The southwest is expected to remain hottest, with highs above 42°C in the Guadiana and Guadalquivir valleys.
For Monday, July 6, AEMET says uncertainty is growing but considers it likely that the heat will spread east and south, reaching the Balearic Islands. If that scenario holds, 38°C could become widespread across Castilla-La Mancha and Mallorca, as well as parts of the northern plateau and the southeast interior. The major river valleys are expected to remain at the center of the heat, with highs between 40 and 42°C. On Tuesday, July 7, some locations in the Guadiana and Guadalquivir valleys could reach 44°C, though AEMET says that remains a low-probability outcome.
The episode’s duration and intensity will depend on the dana’s final position, making precise forecasts difficult. Current models suggest the heat will persist for several days and could meet the criteria for an official heatwave from Sunday onward. By Wednesday, July 8, temperatures may start to fall in central and northern Spain, while the south could remain hot or see further local increases. AEMET also warns of heightened wildfire risk during this period. Dry thunderstorms could develop in mountainous areas if the dana moves closer to the peninsula, a pattern that can raise fire danger.
Later figures for the full summer put this episode in a broader national context. A report by 20minutos, citing AEMET data, said the average temperature across mainland Spain reached 24.5°C in summer 2026, the highest since records began in 1869. Some locations recorded 44.4°C. These seasonal figures cover the entire summer, not the July 4-7 forecast window.
The wider summer also brought a large health toll. A European analysis covering 854 cities in 30 countries estimated 6,824 heat-related deaths in Spain, including 5,227 attributed to climate change. These are modeled estimates, not official death-registration totals. Later reporting cited Garyfallos Konstantinoudis, a biostatistician at Imperial College London, as saying temperatures from June 17 to July 1 averaged 5.3°C above normal. The Science Media Centre also reported that record heat in June and July contributed to wildfire conditions in Spain and France, citing Copernicus data.
Spain has endured several intense heatwaves in recent years, with impressive effects on health and infrastructure. During previous episodes, including one that led to more than a hundred fatalities in June, authorities urged people to stay hydrated and avoid outdoor activity during peak heat, while monitoring vulnerable populations. A recent period of extreme heat in Spain resulted in more than 100 deaths in just three days, underscoring the risks of such weather events. AEMET’s current alert highlights the challenges posed by extreme temperatures and the need to prepare as summer progresses.
