EU Could Lose $2 Trillion in One Year in Event of US-China Military Conflict. According to Bloomberg estimates, a potential military conflict between the US and China could result in record economic losses for the European Union. Germany, Italy, Spain, and France would be among the hardest-hit countries, with total damages for the EU potentially reaching $2 trillion in just one year.
A potential military conflict between the United States and China over Taiwan could inflict damage on the European Union's economy comparable to the biggest crises in recent decades. According to Bloomberg, the agency's analysts have calculated that if the confrontation escalates into open conflict, the EU's total losses in the first year could reach $2 trillion.
Among the countries that will find themselves in the most vulnerable position are Germany, Italy, Spain, and France. According to Bloomberg Economics estimates, Germany risks losing almost 14% of its GDP in the first year of the conflict—twice as much as the expected losses for the United States, which are estimated at 7.3% of GDP. This gap is explained by the high dependence of European economies on global supply chains and exports, as well as limited capacity to respond quickly to abrupt changes in the global environment.
Experts note that EU countries are not prepared for a crisis of this scale. According to the agency, staff exercises and simulations show that in the event of a sudden escalation, Europe would need to make key decisions in a matter of hours, yet the current management mechanisms do not allow for such rapid response. For a long time, Brussels assumed that in the event of a conflict, the EU would be limited to calls for restraint and would wait for the US response, but the return of Donald Trump to the White House has changed these expectations.
Bloomberg emphasizes that a similar situation was already observed during the US sanctions campaign against Iran: Washington sets the tone, but it is Europe that often faces the greatest costs. In the event of a military confrontation over Taiwan, Bloomberg Economics estimates that global GDP could decline by 8%—more than was recorded during the global financial crisis of 2008–2009 and the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020.
Economists warn that losses of this scale could shift the balance of power in global markets and affect the daily lives of millions of Europeans. For Spain, as for other major EU economies, such a scenario would mean not only falling exports and rising unemployment, but also the need to reconsider strategic priorities amid a new geopolitical reality.
