The OECD expects Spain’s economy to grow by 2.6% in 2026, four tenths higher than its previous forecast. That would put Spain ahead of most other European countries, though global uncertainty and volatile energy markets remain concerns.
The upbeat figures come with a warning: the OECD says inflation remains Spain’s biggest headache. Prices are rising faster than in most of Europe. The consumer price index reached 4.3% in August, its highest level since 2023, driven mainly by fuel costs. As fuel gets more expensive, so do everyday goods and services, making it harder for families to keep up even as the economy grows.
Funcas says Spain’s overall inflation likely peaked in August and could end the year at around 3.5%.
Spain’s GDP grew by 2.8% in 2025, information from the OECD, but the country’s statistics agency, INE, has already lowered that figure to 2.6%. The OECD expects Spain to maintain its lead over Germany and France. Italy is also expected to trail Spain. Germany is forecast to grow by 1.1% in 2027, while France is forecast to grow by 0.7%. Italy’s forecast is 0.6%. The eurozone as a whole is expected to grow by about 1%, while G-20 economies are set to expand by just over 3%.
Domestic spending and business investment have supported Spain’s growth even as global trade and manufacturing slow. But high prices are testing that ability to recover. The OECD now expects Spanish inflation to average 3.7% this year, four tenths higher than its June forecast, and to remain high at 3.4% in 2027. Those rates exceed the eurozone averages, where inflation is expected to be 3% this year and 2.9% next year.
Energy is not the only source of pressure. Core inflation, which excludes the most volatile prices, is also proving stubborn. The OECD expects it to reach 3.4% in 2026, half a point higher than previously forecast, before easing to 2.9% in 2027. Analysts from CaixaBank Research and BNP Paribas say the surge in energy and fuel costs has been the basic driver of Spain’s recent price increases, significantly affecting the overall consumer price index. Persistent inflation continues to erode families’ purchasing power, even as the economy looks strong on paper.
Spain’s factories and exporters have faced their own challenges. Recent changes in the car industry show how global demand and new technology are forcing companies to adapt.
El Periódico says Spain is growing faster than its neighbors, but inflation could wipe out those gains for many families. Whether the country can maintain its pace depends on how well people cope with rising costs. The OECD’s forecasts put Spain ahead of much of Europe, though high prices may keep many families from feeling the benefits of growth soon.
