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Seismic Risk in Granada: Experts Warn of Potential for Another Magnitude 5 Quake

Seismic Risk in Granada: Experts Warn of Potential for Another Magnitude 5 Quake RUSSPAIN.com © russpain.com
Seismic Risk in Granada: Experts Warn of Potential for Another Magnitude 5 Quake © russpain.com
Granada remains at risk of another magnitude 5 earthquake, information from geophysics experts. The timing is unpredictable, but aftershocks are decreasing in strength as authorities continue to monitor seismic activity.

A recent magnitude 5 earthquake in Alhendín has renewed concern about seismic risk in Granada. Mercedes Feriche, a geologist and prevention specialist at the Instituto Andaluz de Geofísica, says another quake of similar strength cannot be ruled out, though nobody can predict when one might occur. The Instituto Geográfico Nacional (IGN) recorded two principal earthquakes in the August sequence at magnitude 4.8: one on 15 August 2026 at 01:04 and another on 18 August at 10:37. Their epicentres were less than 10 kilometres deep, near Alhendín, Gójar and La Zubia, around 2-12 kilometres south of Granada.

The tremor in Alhendín was the strongest in a series that began with smaller precursor quakes across the province in July. Feriche says the basic event and its approximately one hundred aftershocks occurred in a subsiding basin crossed by a complex network of faults, many still unmapped. The area’s interconnected fractures make it particularly susceptible to seismic activity. The IGN counted 432 movements in the August sequence, including nine earthquakes of magnitude 3 or higher and 45 that residents felt. The strongest shocks reached intensities of V-VI. The first event prompted more than 200 calls to Spain’s 112 emergency service.

The current sequence differs from the seismic swarm that affected Santa Fe in January 2021, when several faults moved and five quakes exceeded magnitude 5. So far, Alhendín has had only one major event of that intensity. Feriche says both episodes were impressive, but their different characteristics make direct comparison difficult. Granada has also experienced magnitude-5 earthquakes near Armilla in 1955 and Purchil in 1956. These historical precedents show the area’s capacity for damaging seismic activity, but cannot determine when another event may occur.

Aftershocks are becoming weaker and less frequent, a trend consistent with expectations for this type of seismic sequence. By 17 October, instruments had recorded 7,435 tremors in the Granada area since the major August earthquakes. Reporting based on local monitoring described the principal shocks as approximately magnitude 4.9, while the IGN recorded them at 4.8. Feriche says experts can identify areas at risk, but cannot predict the exact timing of future earthquakes.

Granada’s vulnerability is rooted in its geology. The region sits atop a basin with numerous active faults, some still undocumented, adding to the unpredictability of seismic events. The Instituto Andaluz de Geofísica continues to monitor the situation and issue updates as new data emerges. On 18 October, a magnitude 2.8 earthquake near Cájar was felt across numerous municipalities, including Alhendín, Armilla, Cenes de la Vega, Churriana de la Vega, Cúllar Vega, Las Gabias, Gójar, Maracena, Ogíjares and Granada city. Its maximum reported intensity was III. A magnitude 1.9 tremor was also recorded near Vegas del Genil that day. Both events were reported as part of the sequence that began on 15 August.

Residents and authorities remain focused on preparedness and monitoring. The pattern of aftershocks points to a gradual return to stability, though the underlying risk persists. The Consorcio de Compensación de Seguros put damage associated with the sequence at more than €100 million. The first earthquakes affected several municipalities in the metropolitan belt. Reported damage included falling façade elements, cornices, suspended ceilings and glass. Recent natural hazard reports, including the recent orange weather alerts for heavy rain and storms across Spain, reflect the region’s exposure to natural events and the need for constant vigilance.

Spain, particularly Andalusia, has a history of moderate to strong earthquakes. The most destructive in recent memory was the 2011 Lorca earthquake in Murcia. Building codes in seismic zones have been updated over the years to improve ability to recover, though older structures may still be vulnerable. Despite widespread cracking and other damage in Granada, no building collapse was reported. Jesús Galindo, professor of geodynamics and director of the Instituto Andaluz de Ciencias de la Tierra at the University of Granada, said no buildings had collapsed and most damage was repairable. He added that the outcome demonstrated the value of anti-seismic building standards.

The Junta de Andalucía approved extraordinary assistance for municipal facilities affected by the earthquakes, while technical inspections covered homes, public buildings and infrastructure. In September, the Agencia de Emergencias de Andalucía and the Instituto Andaluz de Geofísica held a technical training session on seismic risk, attended by nearly 800 professionals from more than 300 schools and colleges. Authorities have also scheduled Respuesta26, a large-scale earthquake exercise in Granada on 10 November 2026, involving about 200 emergency personnel. The Instituto Andaluz de Geofísica continues to monitor seismic activity and educate the public on reducing risk through awareness and preparedness. Another major quake in Granada cannot be ruled out, though October’s smaller tremors point to a decline from the strongest August activity.

Richard Reid RUSSPAIN.com
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Richard Reid

Richard Reid is the News Editor at RUSSPAIN.COM. He oversees editorial standards, source review and corrections and writes across general news, including politics, economics and social affairs.