Spain's regulated gas tariff could rise by more than 50% from 1 October if the Government does not intervene. More than three million consumers would face the increase during the autumn quarter. The final figure will be known on the last day of this month.
The Organisation of Consumers and Users (OCU) estimates a 54% increase. Energy companies expect a somewhat lower figure. Both point to the same outcome: the rise would still exceed 50% under the official formula for reviewing the Tarifa de Último Recurso (TUR). Spanish media outlets including El Independiente, Telemadrid and La Razón have reported a similar estimate. For households in the TUR.2 bracket, the OCU estimates that the energy price could rise from 4.12 to around 6.95 euro cents per kWh. It also estimates that a gas-heated family could pay about 310 euros more over a year.
The formula reflects a sharp rise in international energy prices in recent months. Brent is one of its basic references, and its increase feeds directly into the regulated price for the period from 1 October to 31 December. The TUR is reviewed every quarter and applies to almost 40% of Spain's roughly eight million gas consumers.
The Government has not announced a decision. Sector sources have not ruled out bringing back the temporary cap used during the energy crisis linked to the war in Ukraine between 2021 and 2023. That mechanism limited quarterly TUR increases to 5% when the raw material cost in the formula rose above 15%.
The State budget covered the difference between the capped price and the amount owed to regulated suppliers. The OCU's figures are preliminary, not an official tariff. The final price is expected to be published after the ministry's decision for 1 October; media calculations suggest that the energy component alone could rise by about 69% if the price moves from 4.12 to 6.95 euro cents per kWh.
The issue is expected to come up at the Council of Ministers meeting scheduled for Tuesday 29 September. The Government plans to approve a review of the Comprehensive Response Plan to the Middle East Crisis, adopted in March. Several measures in the plan expire this month.
Energy companies have met frequently with the Government but received no public commitment on the gas tariff. The latest meeting took place on Tuesday between First Vice-President and Economy Minister Carlos Cuerpo and representatives of ACIE petrol companies, Sedigás gas companies, Enagás, trade unions and other groups.
Cuerpo said Spain had been the first country to impose a reduction in fuel prices after the conflict triggered by the United States in the Middle East in February. He also cited the lack of a new State budget as an obstacle to further relief measures.
Energy companies and the Ministry for the Ecological Transition also held more than twenty meetings over the summer. Minister Sara Aagesen and senior officials from her department took part.
The TUR is available to households and microenterprises with annual consumption below 50,000 kWh. In practice, it covers homes that use gas for cooking and heating, including hot water.
Four regulated suppliers provide the service. Comercializadora Regulada Gas & Power from Naturgy has 3.1 million customers. Curenergía Comercialización de Último Recurso from Iberdrola has 676,000. Energía XXI Comercializadora de Referencia from Endesa has 475,000. Baser Comercializadora de Referencia from TotalEnergies has 351,000.
A new fiscal package could leave the Government with less room to finance another cap. Possible measures include cutting VAT on electricity from 21% to 10% and reducing the Special Tax on Hydrocarbons. The Government has already agreed to phase out the 7% tax on electricity generation by the end of 2027.
There is a recent precedent for financing such an intervention. The cap used during the previous crisis created 600 million euros of debt. At the same time, 3 billion euros had been budgeted to cover deficits created by regulated suppliers. That burden later fell as energy prices dropped and the TUR followed them down.
The measure also changed the market. In less than a year, 1.4 million customers moved from the liberalised market to the regulated tariff. Gas companies said the capped TUR had become their basic competitor and created a bottleneck for regulated suppliers. It also helped contain inflation and prevented sharper increases in household bills.
The sector's criticism extends beyond the temporary cap. Companies say the quarterly review is tied to annual consumption rather than income, even though the tariff was designed to protect vulnerable consumers. A KPMG report also warned that the method does not reflect suppliers' actual procurement costs.
That gap stems from the references used in the formula. Brent sets the base price, while the British NBP hub is used for winter gas. Suppliers in Spain buy fuel with reference to the Iberian Mibgas market.
Except for companies with international contracts fixed in advance, the regulated price can so fall below their actual purchase cost.
The Government now faces a choice. It can let the formula pass the international shock on to households or repeat a costly intervention that previously distorted competition. The expected increase shows that the TUR protects consumers only when the public budget covers the gap. Without a decision before October, the regulated tariff will put that weakness directly on household bills.
