A possible DANA forming just southwest of the Iberian Peninsula could bring heavy rain to southern Spain during the Pilar holiday weekend, a peak travel period. Meteorologist Mario Picazo has warned of the risk, though the forecast remains uncertain.
Speaking to Eltiempo.es, Picazo identified a basic window from Friday, October 9, through Monday, October 12. The forecast is still changing, and it remains unclear whether the DANA will form or where it might move. “It could move across North Africa and the south of the Peninsula during much of the Pilar holiday weekend,” he said. These systems are unpredictable. AEMET spokesperson Rubén del Campo said that even if a DANA appears west of the peninsula, possibly as late as Sunday, October 11, heavy rain or damage is not certain. At that point, Andalucía had no official warnings, and the situation remained under review.
In the initial stage of the weather event, yellow warnings were issued for six provinces in Andalucía: Cádiz, Córdoba, Granada, Jaén, Málaga and Seville. Almería and Huelva were not initially included.
If the DANA develops, the far south of Andalucía, Ceuta and Melilla could be hit hardest, with downpours posing the greatest risk. Picazo stressed that the storm’s path will determine its eventual impact, and no area can be ruled out. AEMET’s territorial representative in Andalucía, Juan de Dios del Pino, said the highest risk of rain and storms was expected on Tuesday, October 6, and Friday, October 9. A second DANA could bring further instability on Friday.
The week already looks unsettled. From Monday, October 5, to Wednesday, October 7, scattered showers and storms are likely across the peninsula. The north, northeast, mountain areas, Mediterranean coast and Balearic Islands all face a risk of strong local storms. The DANA’s isolation west of the peninsula could prolong unsettled weather at least until Wednesday, spreading showers and storms across much of mainland Spain. The most intense conditions are expected in the Mediterranean region.
By Thursday and Friday, some inland, western and southern areas may get a brief break, while showers could develop elsewhere. AEMET expected rain in all eight provinces of Andalucía. Outside the most exposed areas, rainfall was likely to be weak and patchy, though sudden downpours could strike almost anywhere in the region.
Temperatures should stay close to early October averages, with cooler conditions inland and milder weather along the Mediterranean, in the south and on the islands. The basic uncertainty is Monday, October 12, the Pilar holiday itself. Picazo said the mix of low pressure and the Atlantic anticyclone will determine whether unsettled weather persists or conditions clear. The forecast remains mixed: some places will see sun, while others may get rain or storms. AEMET expected temperatures in Andalucía to fall by about 5 to 6 degrees, then rebound later in the week. The region could move from a brief warm spell to a quick drop as new fronts and storm zones pass through.
Spain has seen sudden weather changes before. Late storm alerts have caused flooding and disruption, putting added pressure on forecasters to get the forecast right.
With the Pilar holiday approaching, travelers and residents should stay flexible and monitor updates. The forecast could change in the final days before the break.
