Ursula von der Leyen heads into the European Parliament this week with her political standing on the line as the European Union faces pressure from several directions. The latest incident was a drone crossing into Lithuanian airspace from Belarus before allied jets shot it down. Lithuanian authorities and NATO reported that the drone, likely launched from Belarus, was intercepted near Priatkunai in the Kaišiadorys district on the night of September 15. This was the first time a drone had been shot down over Lithuanian territory, information from the Lithuanian military and crisis center.
Just hours later, Parliament turned to the fallout from the Ceuta crisis, which has fueled eurosceptic arguments and exposed divisions within the EU. NATO officials have linked the Lithuanian drone incident to a broader pattern of increased threats along the alliance’s eastern border. They say these airspace violations form part of a series of events tied to the ongoing war in Ukraine. Lithuania’s defense minister, Robertas Kaunas, said preliminary data indicated the intercepted drone likely did not contain explosives.
Von der Leyen’s annual State of the Union speech comes at a tense moment. This year, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney will be in Strasbourg to pursue a deeper alliance with the EU. His visit reflects a shift in global partnerships as Brussels and Ottawa adjust to unpredictable US trade policy. Information from the Canadian government, Carney’s trip from September 15 to 17 includes a speech to the European Parliament at Roberta Metsola’s invitation, participation in von der Leyen’s address, and meetings with MEPs. The meetings will cover trade and investment, with security also on the agenda. Carney has been in a trade dispute with Washington for weeks, while von der Leyen has managed to avoid a tariff war with the US through a fragile agreement with Donald Trump. The arrangement cost her political use and has not stopped further threats from the White House. International observers see the timing of Carney’s visit and von der Leyen’s address as a coordinated signal of deepening EU-Canada ties, as both sides reassess their trade and security priorities amid global instability.
Europe’s economic challenges extend beyond North America. The EU’s trade deficit with China is growing, driven more by Chinese technology exports than by low-cost goods alone. Germany, long the economic driver of Europe, has been caught off guard by this change and is now pushing for a tougher approach to Beijing, working more closely with France to demand stricter trade policies. Recent reports confirm the EU plans to take a firmer stance on China, but no new official figures on the deficit have been published.
Inside Parliament, von der Leyen faces a pro-European majority that is narrow and increasingly unstable. Her party has repeatedly made deals with the far right, especially on migration and deregulation, alienating social democrats and greens. Migration remains a flashpoint. The Ceuta crisis dominated a recent debate and has become a rallying point for those calling for a unified emergency response. Conservative leaders want new tools and faster action on the Migration and Asylum Pact, which has already led to more deportations.
Some of von der Leyen’s earlier promises remain unfulfilled. Her pledge to suspend the commercial part of the EU’s cooperation agreement with Israel stalled in the Council, despite growing support from socialists and greens. The Draghi plan to boost European competitiveness is also behind schedule, with the Bank of Spain estimating that only 16% of it has been implemented. These delays have weakened confidence in the Commission’s ability to deliver.
With elections coming up in France, Spain, Italy, Poland, and Finland, the risk of further gains by eurosceptic parties is real. The next three years of von der Leyen’s term may be shaped by how she handles migration and trade amid shifting alliances. Iratxe García Pérez, the Parliament’s social democrat leader, has openly called for loyalty from coalition partners for the rest of the term, underlining the fragility of the current majority.
As the EU faces more external and internal challenges, the need for clear leadership is growing. The Ceuta crisis remains at the center of debate, with ongoing arguments about border security and the role of national governments. The judiciary’s call for urgent action on Ceuta’s borders was reported earlier, underscoring concern about the EU’s ability to respond to hybrid threats and migration pressures.
Von der Leyen’s speech will be judged by the actions that follow. Mark Carney’s presence signals a strategic shift, but the EU’s credibility depends on delivering where past promises have fallen short. In the coming months, von der Leyen will have to show whether she can steer through these political challenges or whether the EU’s divisions will deepen, leaving the bloc exposed to outside pressure and internal dissent.
