NOAA Records Onset of El Niño: Scientists Warn of Climate Risks. American scientists have officially declared the onset of El Niño. The phenomenon is expected to intensify global warming and could trigger record temperatures in 2027. Authorities and experts warn of potential disruptions to the climate and economy.
US authorities have confirmed: the El Niño phase has begun in the Pacific Ocean, already impacting sea surface temperatures and potentially leading to serious climate consequences in the coming years. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), water temperatures in the equatorial Pacific have significantly exceeded average levels in recent months, meeting the criteria for the onset of El Niño.
Experts note that the current cycle could develop into a so-called “super El Niño”—one of the strongest ever recorded. Combined with long-term warming driven by human activity, the likelihood of new temperature records, especially in 2027, is extremely high. This could affect not only the climate but also food supply chains and the economies of several countries.
NOAA is recording not only abnormal sea warming but also changes in wind patterns over the Pacific, indicating a complex restructuring of atmospheric processes. According to the agency's forecast, the probability of a very strong El Niño episode between November and January exceeds 60%. However, even with high intensity, the impacts may vary by region.
There is particular concern about the fact that El Niño is developing against the backdrop of an already record-warm planet. According to experts, the additional heat released by the ocean may lead to unprecedented air temperature levels. In 2024, despite not being the strongest El Niño, an absolute temperature record was already registered, and 2025 became the third warmest year in history.
The impact of El Niño is felt primarily in tropical latitudes. Northern Peru and southern Ecuador often suffer from floods, while in Australia, Indonesia and the northern part of South America, the risk of droughts and wildfires increases. This directly affects agriculture and global food reserves. At the same time, the number of hurricanes in the Atlantic decreases, but for Central America, this means lower rainfall and a threat of drought. Even in the UK, the influence of El Niño on winter has been observed, albeit in a weaker form.
For millions of people in vulnerable regions, the announcement of the onset of El Niño is an alarming signal: it means the risk of crop failure, rising food prices, and new challenges for families already affected by weather anomalies. As noted by Power Shift Africa, this is especially acute in East Africa, where droughts and floods alternate.
The Japan Meteorological Agency also confirms the onset of El Niño and expects the phenomenon to persist until autumn. Australian specialists have not yet declared the start of the phase, as they use stricter criteria, but are observing that water temperature is approaching threshold values. According to their assessment, El Niño may intensify by the end of the year.
El Niño occurs every 2–7 years and typically lasts about a year. There is currently no scientific evidence that global warming increases the frequency or intensity of this phenomenon, but its consequences may become increasingly noticeable. It is important to note that even relatively weak episodes can cause significant disruptions to weather and the economy.
In the context of other important news related to the impact of natural phenomena on health and safety, it is worth noting that earlier, doctors from Vall d’Hebron ruled out chance in the case of infant injuries, highlighting the importance of expert assessments in crisis situations (details on the topic).
For reference: El Niño is a natural climate cycle in which warm waters of the Pacific Ocean shift eastward, disrupting usual weather patterns around the world. In Spain, its influence may manifest as abnormal temperatures, unstable precipitation, and changes in agriculture. In recent years, scientists have been paying increased attention to monitoring this phenomenon in order to provide timely warnings of potential risks to the population and the economy.
