France is heading into an unusual late-September heatwave, with temperatures forecast to reach as much as 10°C above normal for this time of year. The European weather model points to hot air flowing directly from Morocco, which could push afternoon highs to levels rarely seen so close to October. Earlier this month, Météo-France reported a impressive heat episode, with national averages 4 to 5°C above normal and southern areas often topping 35°C, sometimes reaching 40°C.
After a brief midweek cool spell, the pattern is expected to change quickly. By Sunday, heat will begin moving north from the south, pushed by a strong anticyclone. This high-pressure system, likely to exceed 1030 hPa, will settle over Brittany before shifting toward Germany. It will block Atlantic weather systems and allow warm air to spread north. Météo-France forecasts that, after rain and cooler weather around 16 September, the Azores anticyclone will return, bringing dry and warm weather under sunny skies by the end of the week.
Several independent French weather services reported as early as 14 to 16 September that a new heatwave could return by 20 to 23 September, with local highs of 30 to 35°C expected in the southwest and south.
On Monday 21 and Tuesday 22 September, afternoon temperatures are expected to be well above average, around 25°C in the north and 28°C in the south. That is more typical of midsummer than the start of autumn. The heat is set to intensify midweek as the anticyclone moves east and winds shift southwest, drawing hotter air from Marrakech through Spain. Several French meteorological outlets back this scenario, pointing to a likely return of warmth after the brief cool period.
On Thursday 24 September, the European model predicts midday temperatures near 30°C in central France, with highs of 32°C in Pays-de-la-Loire and up to 34°C in Aquitaine. The west and southwest are expected to feel the heat first and most strongly, though the rest of the country will also be affected. If the Moroccan air mass continues north, late September could bring record or near-record highs, possibly 28 to 33°C in the north and 30 to 36°C in the south during the afternoons. Météo-France and other official sources caution that exact figures for 21 to 27 September remain uncertain, since some models show cooler conditions in the north and northeast.
The American model offers a different outlook, suggesting cooler air could reach areas north of the Seine and the northeast. The details remain unclear, but most forecasts point to another spell of hot, dry weather in France, with drought conditions likely to worsen as rain remains scarce. Météo-France has linked the situation to ongoing dryness, noting that after the heat, “the drought remains pronounced.” Very dry weather is expected to continue when the anticyclone returns.
The possible new heatwave could worsen water and agricultural stress, though this remains a forecast risk, not a confirmed consequence. Recent official materials describe ongoing dry weather under the anticyclone and a return of high temperatures, but report no declared emergencies or new restrictions.
The coming week is expected to feel more like July than late September. It remains uncertain whether the Marrakech-Paris heat corridor will fully develop, but France is facing persistent late-season warmth that is changing expectations for autumn weather. These anomalies, so close to October, raise questions about the stability of traditional climate patterns and the growing unpredictability of European weather.
