Morocco’s foreign policy has grown more assertive since the Trump administration recognized its sovereignty over Western Sahara and Rabat deepened its alliance with Israel. This has put Spain in a difficult position, especially as Morocco’s statements about Ceuta and Melilla have sharpened ahead of basic UN votes and domestic elections.
The shift began in late 2020, when Donald Trump broke with decades of international policy to endorse Morocco’s claim to Western Sahara. In return for normalizing relations with Israel, Rabat received explicit support from a major power, bypassing the usual UN process. The move, seen as both improvised and decisive, encouraged Morocco to push its autonomy plan for Western Sahara more forcefully at the UN.
In October 2025, the UN Security Council adopted Resolution 2797, strengthening the role of Morocco’s autonomy plan as the most realistic option for Western Sahara, while stopping short of formally recognizing Moroccan sovereignty.
Since then, Morocco has expanded its influence rapidly. It now leads Africa in arms imports, with the US providing 60% of its military purchases. France, once a basic partner, has been overtaken as Morocco’s defense ties with Israel have grown. Israel’s Barak MX air defense system, deployed in the Sahara, and joint military exercises with Israeli and US forces mark a new phase in security cooperation. Two Israeli-designed spy satellites are also being built for Rabat, further deepening those ties.
Morocco’s diplomatic efforts reach beyond the US and Israel. The UK and Germany have moved closer to Morocco’s position, while Russia and China have not blocked Rabat’s initiatives at the UN Security Council. Resolution 2797 passed without a veto from any permanent member, giving Morocco more room to promote its autonomy proposal. Information from The Rio Times and Morocco World News, several EU countries publicly supported the idea in January 2026, joining Morocco in describing autonomy as one of the most realistic solutions for Western Sahara. That language reflected a diplomatic shift toward Rabat’s plan.
Spain’s response has been cautious but impressive. In 2022, Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez called Morocco’s autonomy plan the “most serious, realistic and credible” solution for Western Sahara. The statement marked a change from Spain’s earlier ambiguity and came with a mutual promise to avoid unilateral actions that could provoke the other side. Still, as Moroccan ministers raise Ceuta and Melilla, sometimes in the presence of King Mohamed VI, Madrid faces renewed uncertainty over its North African territories. In August and September 2026, Spain again found itself in disputes with Morocco over Ceuta. Prime Minister Sánchez said Spanish authorities had no evidence that Moroccan officials planned or organized the border breach in Ceuta. He cited a lack of confirmation from intelligence services and European institutions, as reported by The Guardian.
In September 2026, Denmark reaffirmed its support for Morocco’s 'credible' autonomy plan for Western Sahara and welcomed UN Resolution 2797, joining a growing number of European capitals. Meanwhile, the Sahrawi side continues to highlight alleged human rights violations and describes Morocco’s presence in Western Sahara as 'occupation.'
The timing is deliberate. With legislative elections approaching and the Ceuta crisis back in the news, Morocco’s hardline factions seem ready to test their new diplomatic use. The recent migration surge in Ceuta, like the 2021 border incident when thousands crossed into Spain, has again put pressure on Spanish authorities. As reported earlier, Moroccan officials have openly challenged Spain’s position on Ceuta and Melilla. Morocco World News reported that the Spanish Foreign Ministry summoned the Moroccan ambassador after sharp statements about the enclaves, a sign of how quickly these disputes can escalate.
Morocco’s strategy also extends beyond Europe. In Africa, Rabat has rejoined the African Union and opened dozens of consulates in Western Sahara cities. It has also invested heavily across the continent, including in banking and telecoms. In Latin America, countries such as Colombia have shifted their positions, recognizing Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara and freezing ties with the Polisario-backed Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic.
Despite these advances, the Western Sahara dispute remains unresolved. The UN mission, Minurso, remains in place, and a referendum on self-determination is still an option. The Biden administration has not reversed Trump’s recognition, but has taken no further steps, leaving the situation in diplomatic limbo. Talks among Morocco and the Polisario Front have stalled, with Algeria and Mauritania also involved, especially since the start of the Iran war.
For now, Morocco’s claims over Ceuta and Melilla are secondary to its core goal: gaining international acceptance of its control over Western Sahara. The election calendar has heightened the current focus on the Spanish enclaves, but Rabat’s priorities have not fundamentally changed. Backed by the US and Israel, and buoyed by shifting European positions, Morocco has adopted a more confident regional approach and now has more use than ever.
This combination of alliances and tactics is shifting North African geopolitics. Morocco’s willingness to use its partnerships and test the limits of international law has left Spain and the EU with fewer options and more uncertainty. Once a frozen conflict, Western Sahara is now a test of how far diplomatic deals can change borders and power in the region. As Rabat presses its advantage, Spain faces the risk that the old rules no longer apply. The next crisis could come not from the desert, but from the gates of Ceuta and Melilla.
