The Ibex fell 2.74% in September, but 28% of European fund managers still favour an overweight position in Spanish shares, the highest reading since May 2018. Santander leads the stock picks, with Indra in second place.
The Ibex fell 2.74% in September and ended the quarter down 0.23%, snapping a five-month run of gains. Yet the Bank of America survey published on 13 October found a net balance of 28% among European fund managers favouring an overweight position in Spanish shares. That is the highest reading since May 2018. The figure measures the gap between managers who plan to hold more Spanish shares than their target allocation and those who plan to cut their exposure.
Bond yields are rising as the year enters its final stretch. Political instability in France and doubts about technology shares add to the uncertainty. The survey also found investors more cautious about France. Against that backdrop, Santander remains the leading choice in Expansión’s portfolio contest. Indra has climbed from seventh to second, while Iberdrola now sits third.
Santander has gained 19.5% since January. Singular Bank points to credit growth, while bad-loan levels remain low. It also cites sector consolidation and corporate deals. The bank estimates that profits could grow by 10% a year in coming years if interest rates remain moderate. Banca March highlights Santander’s capital ratios and its commitment to an attractive dividend. Bankinter points to a 15.6% ROTE. It also cites sound credit quality and surplus capital as support for the bank’s 2026–2028 targets.
Santander reported underlying profit of €7.3 billion and underlying RoTE of 15.6% for the first half of 2026. Its CET1 ratio stood at 14.0% at the end of June. The bank projected a year-end range of 12.8% to 13.0%, taking the Webster acquisition into account. Santander aims to exceed 20% RoTE by 2028. The target rests on integrating UK bank TSB and US lender Webster. Santander also points to its One Transformation programme. Analysts estimate the acquisitions could generate about €1.2 billion in synergies. Santander planned to publish its nine-month results on 28 October.
Shareholder returns add to the case for Santander. The bank announced an interim cash dividend of €0.127 per share, payable on 2 November 2026. That is 10% higher than the payment a year earlier. The last trading day with dividend rights was set for 28 October. The ex-dividend date follows on 29 October, with the record date on 30 October.
Santander planned to allocate €3.7 billion to shareholder remuneration from first-half 2026 results. That includes about €1.8 billion in dividends and a comparable amount for a share buyback. Its first-half 2026 shareholder materials also listed cash payments of €0.115 per share in November 2025 and €0.125 in May 2026.
Indra’s climb reflects rising European defence spending. José Francisco Ibáñez, analysis director at Tressis, says its order book exceeds €20 billion and contract awards are advancing strongly. Revenue and margins are growing too. Bankinter identifies Indra as the main beneficiary of the Programas Especiales de Modernización. The company’s strategic plan to 2030 is due to be presented on 25 November, and Bankinter expects it to lift expectations.
Iberdrola has risen 17.47% this year. Kutxabank Investment points to the visibility of its results and investment in networks. It also cites growing shareholder returns. Bankinter favours the company’s shift towards a less volatile business.
Inditex makes the list on market share and its defensive profile. A strong dollar helps its case. Singular Bank estimates annual growth of 7%. Amadeus draws support from its leadership and barriers to entry. Banca March considers fears that airlines’ use of artificial intelligence could erode its business exaggerated.
ACS has regained appeal after the summer correction. Repsol ranks seventh, with oil around $100 a barrel and the shares up more than 80% since January. Its dividend yield is part of the case. So is a payout split between cash and shares. The company’s separate energy customer push has also involved fuel discounts.
Merlin has slipped from fifth to eighth as higher interest rates and housing uncertainty weigh on the property group. Data centres provide a counterweight. BBVA and Puig are tied in the contest for the final two places in the top 10. Solaria is tied there as well.
The contest results show how widely the portfolios diverged. Atl Capital/Abante returned 9.50% in the quarter, the best performance among the 20 portfolios. It also leads the year-to-date table with 24.5%, twice the Ibex’s return. Tradition and GVC Gaesco recorded returns ranging from 6.8% to 9.5%. Half of the participating firms made money in a quarter when the index fell 0.23%.
For the year, Auriga and Bankinter follow Atl Capital. Tradition and Banco Big are also next in the rankings, each above 13%.
The Ibex remains one of Europe’s strongest indices, behind only the FTSE Mib. BlackRock is among its major investors. Vanguard and Capital Group are also major investors. The portfolios have added Airtificial Intelligence and Almirall. Global Dominion is included too. Acciona and CaixaBank have been dropped, along with Cirsa and eDreams. Elecnor and HBX are out as well. The portfolios have also removed Logista and Neinor, plus PharmaMar.
