Temperatures across Spain are set to climb sharply from Friday, July 3, as a mass of dry, hot air moves north over the peninsula. The State Meteorological Agency (AEMET), Spain’s official weather authority, forecasts that the surge will push daytime highs well above seasonal norms. The most extreme conditions are expected in the valleys of the Guadiana and Guadalquivir rivers. Temperatures there could exceed 42ºC over the weekend and, in some locations, approach 44ºC by Tuesday, July 7. These are forecast highs; AEMET’s station records separately document temperatures actually observed at individual locations.
The heat will persist after sunset. Many regions, especially the Mediterranean and basic Spain, along with the south, are forecast to endure tropical nights, with minimum temperatures remaining between 22ºC and 24ºC. In Cáceres and Jaén, overnight lows may not drop below 25ºC. The same is forecast for Cádiz and Sevilla, making restful sleep difficult and increasing health risks for vulnerable groups.
Widespread Impact
The initial spike in temperatures is forecast to begin between Friday and Saturday. AEMET and Civil Protection agencies warn that highs of 36ºC to 38ºC are likely in the Ebro and Miño river areas, with 38ºC to 40ºC across much of the southwest. The valleys of the Tajo and Guadiana are expected to be among the hardest hit, as is the Guadalquivir valley, where temperatures could surpass 40ºC. By Sunday, the heat will intensify further, potentially reaching 40ºC in the Miño valley and parts of inland Galicia.
European weather models indicate that some interior and western regions could see temperatures more than eight degrees above the early-July average, creating conditions typical of the peak summer months.
Regions Most at Risk
The most severe heat is forecast for river valleys and inland depressions. On Sunday, highs above 42ºC are expected in the Guadiana and Guadalquivir basins, with isolated spots possibly reaching 44ºC by Tuesday. From Monday, the heat is likely to spread east and south, affecting areas such as La Mancha and the northern plateau, as well as the interior southeast and Mallorca, where 38ºC could become widespread.
The Canary Islands will also feel the effects, particularly the eastern islands, where highs of 38ºC are possible. In southern Gran Canaria, nighttime temperatures may remain above 30ºC in some mid-altitude areas.
Health and Safety Concerns
Authorities are urging caution during the hottest hours of the day, especially for people with health vulnerabilities and those working outdoors. Civil Protection has highlighted the increased wildfire risk, particularly if afternoon storms develop in mountainous areas with little rainfall. Extreme heat combined with dry conditions could create dangerous fire weather next week.
The exact duration and reach of this heat episode remain uncertain. AEMET has not ruled out an official heatwave beginning Sunday, July 5. Current forecasts suggest temperatures could drop in central and northern Spain by Wednesday, July 8, but the south may continue to experience very high temperatures beyond that date.
Residents are advised to stay informed and take precautions against heat-related illnesses, while monitoring updates from AEMET and Civil Protection.
