No research vessel has come within 150 kilometres of the front of Cook Glacier, and there are no direct maps of the seabed in front of it. This data gap is basic to concern over the Wilkes Subglacial Basin, which contains enough ice to raise the global average sea level by between three and four metres.
The basin has received far less direct study than West Antarctica, despite signs that it may be one of East Antarctica's most vulnerable areas.
The gap is basic: scientists lack direct observations.
They still do not know whether relatively warm ocean water reaches the glaciers. The shape of the seafloor beneath the ice-covered continental shelf is also unclear, as is the distance to a warming threshold that could trigger large-scale retreat.
A review in Nature Reviews Earth& Environment brings together evidence from geology and oceanography, alongside climate science. It also draws on satellite observations and ice-sheet modelling. Published on 30 September 2026, it calls for an urgent international programme to observe and map the basin.
The team includes Dimitris Evangelinos of the Marine Geosciences Research Group at the University of Barcelona and specialists from 14 countries. Matt King of the Australian Centre for Excellence in Antarctic Science and the University of Tasmania led the study, information from materials from the University of Tasmania and ACEAS.
The blind spot is unusual, even by Antarctic standards.
The basin stretches roughly 1,400 kilometres from east to west and 400 kilometres across. Its ice sits on bedrock more than 2,000 metres below sea level. Sea ice covers much of the nearby continental shelf for much of the year and is exceptionally thick in some areas. Access and measurements are difficult.
The bedrock shape adds to the risk. It deepens inland rather than becoming shallower, a reverse slope that can support marine ice-sheet instability. If the grounding line moves beyond certain stabilising points, retreat may speed up.
Models cited by the researchers indicate that retreat could reach approximately one kilometre per year under some conditions.
The ocean could turn that vulnerability into lasting ice loss. Comparatively warm seawater can enter cavities beneath floating ice shelves, thinning them from below and leaving the glaciers behind them with less restraint.
Existing observations already show decades of retreat at the grounding line. Ice shelves have thinned, and parts of the region have seen partial collapse. The speed and final scale of any wider change remain uncertain.
That uncertainty matters.
Paleoclimate records and simulations show major ice retreat in the area during some warmer periods, particularly the Pliocene. Researchers still cannot say which climate thresholds would trigger a large-scale retreat. They also cannot determine how quickly it would develop or how much the basin would add to global sea-level rise.
Wilkes is not the only concern. The Aurora and Recovery basins also contain marine-based ice that may be exposed to ocean warming. Together, these East Antarctic basins hold enough ice to produce a potential 19-metre rise in the global average sea level.
The effects would reach beyond coastlines. Extra freshwater in the Southern Ocean could affect deep-water formation around Antarctica and alter ocean circulation, with consequences for biogeochemical cycles and marine ecosystems worldwide.
Australia has a direct strategic interest. Wilkes is the closest major East Antarctic basin to the continent. Projections cited in the review put the cost of sea-level rise to Australia at about 855 billion dollars this century. Around 85% of the country's population lives in coastal areas.
The Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research has approved an action group to coordinate research planning. One country working alone could need 20 to 30 years to understand the basin properly.
Officials have little time.
The scientific case rests on speed and cooperation. Waiting for clearer damage would delay the work needed to understand the risk.
Wilkes has shifted from a remote research gap to a measurable climate risk. The evidence stops short of establishing an imminent collapse. It does show that immediate investigation is needed into ocean access and hidden bedrock geometry. Past retreat patterns also need scrutiny.
East Antarctica cannot be treated as stable by default. Without coordinated observations, future sea-level exposure may be calculated only after the most impressive warning signs have appeared.
