The concept of measles elimination refers to the interruption of sustained transmission of the virus across large areas. International medical organizations recognize an infection as eliminated if there has been no continuous transmission within a country for a year or more. At the same time, isolated imported cases should not result in prolonged outbreaks that last more than 12 consecutive months.
In November 2025, Canada officially lost its status as a country where measles is considered eliminated. The reason was a series of related outbreaks which, according to Pan American Health Organization experts, formed a single chain of transmission that continued uninterrupted for over a year.
The situation in the US: new outbreaks and possible consequences
At the beginning of 2025, a major measles outbreak occurred in western Texas. Although the spread of the infection was contained, isolated cases were reported in Arizona and Utah. New episodes continue to be recorded in these states to this day.
Experts warn: if a link is established between the outbreaks in Texas, Arizona, and Utah, the United States could lose its status as a country that has defeated measles as early as January 2026. International organizations will consider whether these cases form a single chain of virus transmission at the start of next year.
According to infectious disease experts, it is still unclear what decision will be made by specialists. However, the likelihood remains high that cases in several states will be linked as part of a single epidemiological chain.
Reasons for the surge in cases and the role of vaccination
Measles is considered one of the most contagious infections in the world. According to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, during the acute phase, the disease is fatal for one to three out of every thousand infected children. Even after recovery, severe complications can develop, sometimes years later.
Vaccination remains the most effective means of protection, reducing the risk of infection by 97%. However, in recent years, the number of people refusing vaccines has steadily increased. This creates favorable conditions for the virus to spread and for new outbreaks to occur.
Potential consequences for the healthcare system
Losing its status as a country where measles is considered eliminated could lead to stricter sanitary measures and a revision of national immunization programs. Authorities would be forced to ramp up information campaigns to boost public trust in vaccination.
Experts note that the return of measles to countries with advanced healthcare systems signals global problems with vaccination coverage. If the trend continues, similar situations could arise in other regions around the world.
In the coming months, experts will be closely monitoring the epidemiological situation in the United States. The decision on whether the country retains or loses its measles-free status will serve as an important signal for the global community.
