At 8:00 p.m. local time in Extremadura, voting ended and ballot counting began. Tonight, attention is focused on five key indicators that could change the political landscape of the region. Each one reflects not only the competition between parties but also possible scenarios for the formation of power.
The first number is 33. That’s the number of seats needed for an absolute majority in the Extremadura Assembly, which has a total of 65 seats. For María Guardiola and her party, this is the coveted milestone that no representative of the Partido Popular (PP) has ever reached. Even in 2011, when José Antonio Monago secured a record 46% of the vote, the party stopped at 32 deputies. If Guardiola manages to secure 33 seats, it will be a historic achievement. However, the likelihood of this outcome is estimated at just 12%. More likely, the PP will need either the support or at least the neutrality of Vox to form a majority. If the PP cannot surpass the combined results of the left-wing parties, Vox’s role in negotiations will increase, and Guardiola’s victory would be far from certain.
Shift to the right
The second figure is 40. That’s the number of seats PP and Vox could secure together if the forecasts prove accurate. In 2023, these parties already managed to win 33 mandates, which allowed Guardiola to take the helm of the region, despite having fewer votes than the Socialist Guillermo Fernández Vara. Now, polls are giving right-wing forces up to 55% of the vote and around 40 seats in parliament. This would clearly indicate a shift in voter sentiment to the right in a traditionally center-left region.
The third number is 10. That’s how many seats Vox could win if its support doubles compared to the previous election. In 2023, the party claimed 5 seats and 8.14% of the vote—far from its best results in other regions. Now, all polls forecast significant growth for Vox. If the party doubles its representation, movement leader Santiago Abascal will be able to claim a strategic victory and a stronger influence at the regional level.
The Socialists’ decline
The fourth number is 20. For the Socialists (PSOE), this is a critical threshold. It’s already clear the party will lose its status as the region’s most popular. If the result falls below 28 seats and 39.9% of the vote, it will be their worst showing ever. But an even deeper setback is possible: if PSOE drops below 20 seats and 30% of the vote, this would deal a real blow to Pedro Sánchez’s team and raise serious questions about the party’s future in Extremadura.
The fifth number is 7. That is how many seats the Unidas por Extremadura coalition could win, according to forecasts. Currently, the left-wing alternative holds 4 seats, but reaching 6 would already match the records set by Izquierda Unida (IU) in 1995 and Podemos in 2015. If they manage to secure 7 mandates, Irene de Miguel will achieve a historic milestone for this political movement.
A night of anticipation
The vote-counting evening in Extremadura promises to be tense. Each of these five factors could shift the balance of power and determine who will form the next government. All eyes are on whether PP can win an absolute majority for the first time in history, how much Vox will strengthen its position, and if the left alternative can capitalize on the Socialist Party’s decline. The results will be announced very soon, but for now, political headquarters are holding their breath, waiting for the first returns.
