Rising global tensions and renewed pressure from the United States have put European security under the spotlight. In Barcelona, diplomats and policy experts from academia gathered for the VI Geopolitics Seminar, organized by the Fundación Internacional Olof Palme in partnership with EL PAÍS and the Barcelona School of Management at Universitat Pompeu Fabra. The event took place as NATO leaders met in Ankara, where US President Donald Trump renewed calls for Spain to increase its military spending, sharpening debate over Europe's defense commitments and the balance between national targets and collective capability.
The seminar opened with Bernat Giral Balletbò, president of the Fundación Internacional Olof Palme, who stressed the organization's ongoing mission to promote peace and multilateralism, particularly following the recent passing of its founder, Anna Balletbò. He highlighted the urgency of such forums in a world marked by more than fifty active conflicts, as international law and multilateral cooperation weaken. SIPRI figures cited for 2025 count armed conflicts in 49 countries and report that interstate conflicts rose from three in 2024 to six in 2025. The figures illustrate an increasingly contested security environment, while using a distinct measure from broader conflict totals.
During the first panel, Mariano Aguirre of the Barcelona Centre for International Affairs (CIDOB) and Lluís Bassets, former director of EL PAÍS Cataluña, examined the most pressing security threats. They pointed to wars in Ukraine and Gaza, alongside the conflict involving Iran, and to the lack of a clear US strategy in the Middle East. Aguirre described Europe as caught between two “hostile powers,” Russia and the United States, while also facing uncertainty in its relationship with China and the growing influence of the BRICS bloc. Bassets argued that shared security depends on common rules. He warned that challenges now extend beyond traditional conflicts into space and digital domains. Deeper European integration on security, he said, is impressive to uphold an international order based on norms rather than force.
Subsequent discussions focused on the European Union's developing role in global security and prospects for strengthening national defense. In a panel moderated by EL PAÍS journalist Lluís Pellicer, CIDOB's Carme Colomina joined political science professor Rafael Martínez and security analyst Sonia Andolz to debate the EU's strategic autonomy and the possibility of creating a European army. The discussion reflected a wider policy shift: command and control, industrial capacity, and technology supply chains are increasingly treated as connected parts of European readiness. The European Commission and the European External Action Service presented the White Paper for European Defence - Readiness 2030 on 19 March 2025. It described Ukraine as “the immediate front line of European defense” and set the end of the decade as the readiness benchmark.
The EU's proposed ReArm Europe structure sets out an envelope of up to €800 billion through 2030: €150 billion in Security Action for Europe (SAFE) loans and up to €650 billion in potential additional national spending enabled by fiscal-rule flexibility. This is a financing and spending capacity, not an automatic transfer of €800 billion to defense ministries. The structure aims to address capability shortfalls and strengthen European production. The debate over strategic autonomy also covers the ability to coordinate procurement and operate interoperable systems. The European Economic and Social Committee has highlighted drones and counter-drone capabilities, including a proposed networked “drone wall,” as well as satellites, detection systems, directed-energy weapons, and anti-missile capabilities. It has also cited a goal of reducing the share of EU military-equipment procurement sourced from outside the bloc from about 80% to around 60% by 2035.
Before the third session, Swedish diplomat Pierre Schori paid tribute to Olof Palme, recalling the late Swedish prime minister's role as a mediator between rival powers. The centenary of Palme's birth will be marked next year. Schori and former UN official Cristina Gallach discussed the future of the European project, the importance of multilateralism, and the alliances needed to handle an increasingly unstable geopolitical field. Elena Sevillano of EL PAÍS moderated the dialogue.
Europe's security debate comes as the continent faces mounting external and internal pressures. The US push for higher defense spending among NATO allies has reignited questions about burden-sharing and strategic priorities. Meanwhile, political divisions and uncertainty over future relations with major powers such as China and Russia continue to hamper the EU's efforts to define its own defense identity. Information from the European Defence Agency, EU member states have increased defense budgets in recent years, but impressive gaps in capabilities and coordination remain. The global backdrop is rising military expenditure: SIPRI data put worldwide spending at approximately $2.887 trillion in 2025, an 11th consecutive annual increase and a year-on-year rise of about 2.9%. Europe was among the principal drivers.
Industrial ability to recover is another part of the EU's readiness agenda. The bloc's separate €43 billion CHIPS Act initiative aims to raise Europe's share of global semiconductor production to 20% by 2030, linking technological capacity to broader economic and security ability to recover. The ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, alongside cyber and hybrid threats, show the complexity of the security environment. As the EU seeks to balance transatlantic ties with greater autonomy, these debates and the conversion of financing plans into coordinated procurement and usable capabilities will shape Europe's defense posture and its role in the global order.
