National Weather Forecasting (NWF) puts the odds of a major hurricane striking New England during the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season at 33%. That regional estimate differs from forecasts by established meteorological centers, including Colorado State University, which anticipate a quieter year with few major storms. NWF’s figure measures regional landfall risk, unlike seasonal forecasts that count storms across the entire Atlantic basin.
NWF, which recently acquired the Global Weather Oscillations (GWO) service, forecasts more named storms than its competitors and identifies where the most severe impacts could occur. The company says New England faces impressive risk this season. Ryan Maue’s April 7 basin-wide outlook projected 9 to 13 named storms, with 11 most likely. It put the hurricane outlook at 4 to 7, most likely five or six. For major hurricanes, it forecast one to three, with two most likely. The outlook also put Atlantic Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) at 75 to 85, a well-below-normal range. These basin-wide totals describe expected activity across the Atlantic, not the chance of a major hurricane reaching New England.
The NWF forecast draws on long-term climate cycles and gravitational data, using a methodology developed by Florida meteorologist David Dilley. Dilley argues that the current global cooling phase could create conditions resembling those before the devastating 1938 hurricane. The 2026 seasonal outlooks point to another physical influence: strong wind shear associated with a Super El Niño, which can disrupt tropical cyclones even when ocean temperatures are favorable.
Russ Murley, NWF president and a veteran meteorologist, says the company’s approach offers more detailed regional risk assessments than traditional forecasts. For 2026, NWF’s analysis singles out Zone 1, which includes New England, as facing the highest risk. The Gulf Coast from Alabama to Texas is assigned a lower, 20% chance of a major hurricane, while other coastal areas are considered less likely to experience impressive storms this year.
The season’s observed record has so far been much quieter than a high-activity forecast would suggest. By late October, reports counted 10 named storms and just one hurricane, Isaias, which became a hurricane on October 8. That was the latest first Atlantic hurricane in the satellite era, tying 1905 for the latest first hurricane formation in the historical record. The season was also projected to produce the lowest Atlantic ACE total since reliable records began in 1950. Meteorologist Michael Lowry described the basin as quiet, citing persistent above-average wind shear.
A quiet tropical season does not mean the coast has been free of hazardous weather. Subtropical Storm Josephine developed in October after a slow-moving nor’easter affected the Eastern Seaboard. Gusts exceeding 40 mph were reported from North Carolina’s Outer Banks to coastal Massachusetts, along with beach erosion and coastal flooding. Josephine, the season’s 10th named storm, affected southeastern New England, reaching Cape Cod and the islands of Martha’s Vineyard and Nantucket. It was expected to move away and become an extratropical cyclone. Meteorologist Michael R. Lowry said Josephine would add to the storm count but do little to revive the season. Hurricane analyst Bryan Norcross noted that “Non-tropical systems can produce major impacts along the coast.”
For New England, the 1938 hurricane remains a stark historical benchmark. Its center passed west of New York City before striking Long Island and New England. Winds at New York’s Whitehall Building were reported at about 70 mph, just below the hurricane threshold cited at the time. The storm caused approximately $300 million in property damage and about 600 deaths on land and at sea, though estimates of its death toll and the present-day value of its losses vary. Its rapid movement and broad reach made it one of the region’s most destructive hurricanes.
NWF’s detailed regional predictions are available to subscribers, with prices ranging from $350 to $2,500 depending on the level of detail. The company claims a 75% accuracy rate for its hurricane landfall forecasts over the past two decades, though some predictions have not materialized. A major hurricane forecast for Florida’s west coast last year did not occur, while the service says it correctly anticipated Hurricane Irma’s path in 2017 when other forecasts did not.
NWF’s acquisitions, including Metro Weather Service and a New York-focused company, have expanded its long-range and venue-specific forecasting. The firm provides tailored weather analysis for sports venues and infrastructure projects, where localized information can guide planning and risk management. In 2026, New England has also had near misses: meteorologist Michael Lowry described the season that way after a late-September nor’easter passed through without tropical characteristics. A different track could have produced impacts comparable to Hurricane Bob in 1991. Other potential disturbances dissipated or moved away before directly affecting the region.
In the United States, hurricane season typically runs from June to November, and the Atlantic basin averages about 12 named storms a year. Improved forecasting has extended warning times and sharpened risk assessments, but seasonal outlooks and regional landfall probabilities measure different things. Neither removes the need to prepare for rare, high-impact events. Josephine’s coastal effects show that New England can face damaging winds alongside flooding and wave-driven overwash, even without a direct major-hurricane strike.
