Change is brewing in Andalusia: new data from the Centra (Centre for Andalusian Studies) poll shows that the Popular Party (Partido Popular, PP), led by Juan Manuel Moreno, has seen its position noticeably weaken. If regional parliamentary elections were held today, the PP would remain in the lead but might lose its absolute majority. Meanwhile, Vox has shown significant growth, while the Socialists (PSOE) are experiencing a historic decline.
According to the survey results, the PP is polling at 40.2%, almost three points lower than in the last elections. This would give the party 53–55 seats in the 109-member parliament, with 55 required for an absolute majority. The gap with its closest rival, the PSOE, stands at 18.8 points, but the Socialists garner only 21.4% of the vote and 25–28 seats—a record low for the party.
Vox on the rise
The most notable surprise in the poll is Vox’s momentum. The party has gained four points compared to the previous elections and could now secure 17.5% of the vote and 19–22 seats in parliament—a significant jump from its current 14 seats. As a result, Vox is now trailing the PSOE by less than four points.
Overall, the right-wing bloc of PP and Vox, depending on the scenario, could win between 72 and 77 seats in the parliament. This would still give them control, but PP’s absolute majority is in jeopardy.
Regional challenges
For the first time in a long while, residents of Andalusia have named healthcare as the region’s main problem. This sector was highlighted by 22.3% of respondents, whereas unemployment—which has traditionally ranked first—is now a concern for 15.4%. The third biggest issue is housing affordability and cost (12.2%).
The situation has been aggravated by a recent scandal involving the breast cancer screening program and corruption cases that have implicated members of both PSOE and PP in Almería. According to analysts, these events may have influenced voter sentiment and eroded trust in the authorities.
Government performance assessment
The Andalusian government’s approval rating has dropped significantly. More than half of respondents (56.8%) rate the work of the regional cabinet as poor or very poor. Only 39.9% say that the region is well or very well governed.
When it comes to the personal performance of Juan Manuel Moreno as president, 55.8% of those surveyed are also dissatisfied with his work, while 41.2% give him a positive assessment. Despite this, Moreno remains the most popular candidate for head of government, with 33.1% of respondents supporting him. In second place is María Jesús Montero from PSOE, with 19.4%. José Ignacio García, leader of Adelante Andalucía, would receive 7.1% of the vote, while Manuel Gavira from Vox would get 4.4%.
Other parties’ positions
The Por Andalucía coalition, which brings together Izquierda Unida, Podemos, and Movimiento Sumar, maintains stable support—7.5% of the vote and 5–6 seats in parliament. This is roughly in line with their result in the previous election. In contrast, the Adelante Andalucía party has slightly strengthened its position: its support has risen to 6.1%, which could secure 2–3 seats instead of the current two.
The poll was conducted from November 17 to 28 and surveyed 3,600 people. The margin of error is 1.63%. The project cost was €22,564.08 including VAT.
