Berlin is approaching a closely fought regional election, with the housing crisis pushing La Izquierda to the front of the race. Its candidate, Elif Eralp, could become Berlin’s first German-Turkish mayor. Meanwhile, the far-right AfD is on track to double its support, threatening the city’s usual political balance.
Recent polls put La Izquierda and the conservatives nearly even, at around 20 percent each, with AfD just behind at 18 percent. The Greens are also still in the running. AfD’s rise follows its win in Saxony-Anhalt and has left left-leaning parties scrambling to mobilize voters worried about the far right’s momentum. BerlinTrend and Forsa polls reported by Deutsche Welle show that about 32% of Berliners now name the housing crisis as the city’s biggest problem, well ahead of concerns about migration or security.
Roughly 85% of Berliners are renters, making the city one of the largest rental markets in Europe and amplifying the political impact of rising rents.
Source: Le Monde
Housing dominates the campaign. More than 80 percent of Berliners rent, and average rents have jumped 69 percent since 2016. With lower salaries and a 10.6 percent unemployment rate, many struggle to find affordable places to live. La Izquierda has made the crisis its basic issue, calling for properties owned by large landlords such as Deutsche Wohnen, which owns over 100,000 apartments in Berlin, to be transferred into public ownership, following the 2021 referendum result. French and German media report that the debate over expropriating major landlords remains heated and divisive.
Berlin’s population has grown by nearly half a million since 2011, reaching 3.9 million, but new housing and infrastructure haven’t kept up. The city’s public debt now stands at over 69 billion euros, making the shortage even harder to address. The arrival of refugees from Syria and Ukraine, along with other migrants, has added to Berlin’s diversity: 41.7 percent of residents were born abroad or have a migration background, including Eralp. Demographic reviews and official statistics show that this rapid growth has put more pressure on housing and social services.
Recent polling by Infratest dimap and ZDF/Forschungsgruppe Wahlen shows a near three-way tie between Die Linke, CDU, and AfD, each polling between 17% and 23%. AfD’s support in Berlin has nearly doubled since the 2023 election, a dramatic rise cited in short reports from leading German research organizations.
AfD’s momentum is strongest in eastern districts like Marzahn-Hellersdorf, where support could rise from 19.2 percent to as high as 36 percent. These neighborhoods, lined with East German-era Plattenbauten and offering few leisure options, have become a base for AfD’s message. Some residents there point to immigration and housing as their basic worries, even though the share of foreigners is lower than in other parts of the city.
Frustration with the current conservative-led government has also shaped the race. Outgoing mayor Kai Wegner was criticized for his response to a recent blackout during a cold snap, and Stefan Evers has now replaced him as the conservative candidate. Many voters are fed up with broken promises on education and housing, boosting support for both AfD and left-wing parties.
Social Democrats in areas like Marzahn-Hellersdorf say they are losing voters to AfD, which has shifted debates toward emotional issues like fear and resentment. Some former SPD supporters now argue that too much money goes to foreign and queer issues instead of working-class Berliners. Still, not everyone is convinced by AfD’s rhetoric. Older voters, remembering the destruction of World War II, warn against letting the far right gain ground and urge Berliners not to forget the past.
This election reaches beyond local politics. It will test how Europe’s biggest cities handle social change and political division. The result will decide who leads Berlin and whether the city’s tradition of diversity and openness can withstand the rise of populist forces.
