For the first time this term, PP and Vox together account for more than half of projected votes. The left loses support amid the Ceuta migration crisis, with Vox gaining and PSOE losing voters to the right.
Spain’s political balance has shifted: for the first time in the current legislature, PP and Vox together now draw more than half of projected votes. The latest 40dB. barometer shows this change coming in the wake of the Ceuta migration crisis, which has dominated headlines and pushed migration to the center of political debate.
PP leads with 32.4% of the projected vote, matching its best result this year and slightly up from July. Vox has seen the sharpest rise among major parties, reaching 17.8%. Together, they total 50.2%—a record for this parliamentary term and a sign that the right is consolidating as the left loses ground.
According to the Spanish Center for Sociological Research (CIS), public concern over immigration reached its highest level in five years following the Ceuta crisis.
PSOE now trails PP by 4.8 points, slipping to 27.6%. That’s more than four points below its 2023 general election result and only just above its lowest mark of the year. The gap between the two main parties has widened by nearly a point since July. Sumar and Podemos, the other main parties on the left, have not gained from PSOE’s decline. Together, they account for just 8.5% of voting intentions, down from 12.3% in 2023.
Vox’s gains go beyond the numbers. Now, 27% of respondents see Vox as the party best able to manage immigration, ahead of both PSOE and PP. This perception has grown as migration has become a central issue, especially after the Ceuta crisis put border management and security in the spotlight. The poll was conducted a month after the crisis began, giving public opinion time to settle around these topics.
Vox also has the most mobilized and loyal voters. Over 71% of its 2023 voters say they are certain to vote again, and 85.9% plan to stick with the party—higher than any rival. Vox’s rise is also fueled by voters switching from both PP and PSOE: nearly 13% of former PP voters now lean toward Vox, and some ex-PSOE voters are also moving right.
Official data from Spain’s Ministry of the Interior show that irregular border crossings in Ceuta surged by over 200% during the crisis period, prompting emergency coordination between Spanish and Moroccan authorities. This spike in arrivals led to heightened security measures and a temporary deployment of additional police forces to the enclave.
The left’s position is further weakened by uncertainty within Sumar, which still lacks a clear candidate, brand, or unified platform for the next election. This fragmentation makes it harder for the progressive bloc to present a credible alternative as the right consolidates. Adding in the far-right Se Acabó la Fiesta (SALF), now at 2.2%, the right-wing total rises to 52.4%, leaving the left more than sixteen points behind.
Age divides the electorate. Vox leads among Spaniards under 34, but its support drops with older voters, where PSOE is strongest—especially among those over 65, who give nearly 30% support to the Socialists. This generational split adds another layer to the changing political map.
The Ceuta crisis has exposed the government’s vulnerability on migration and given Vox more space for its hardline message. The situation escalated after a police report suggested Moroccan agents were involved in the border surge, contradicting the Spanish government’s earlier statements and increasing scrutiny of official responses. The fallout from these events continues to shape public opinion and party support.
Political deadlock over migration policy is not new in Ceuta. As reported earlier, disputes between national and regional authorities have repeatedly left vulnerable migrants in limbo, highlighting the deep divisions in Spain’s approach to border management.
The latest data show a clear realignment. The right has turned the government’s perceived missteps and public anxiety over migration into electoral gains. The left, fragmented and uncertain, is losing both momentum and voters. Unless the progressive bloc can resolve its internal divisions and offer a stronger alternative, the path to La Moncloa increasingly favors a right-wing coalition—one strengthened by numbers and a political climate that rewards firm positions on migration.
