Spain’s political balance has shifted: for the first time in the current legislature, PP and Vox together draw more than half of projected votes. The latest 40dB. barometer shows this shift following the Ceuta migration crisis, which has dominated headlines and pushed migration to the center of political debate.
PP leads with 32.4% of the projected vote, matching its best result this year and edging up from July. Vox has recorded the sharpest rise among major parties, reaching 17.8%. Together, they total 50.2%, a record for this parliamentary term and a sign that the right is consolidating as the left loses ground.
Information from the Spanish Center for Sociological Research (CIS), public concern over immigration reached its highest level in five years after the Ceuta crisis.
PSOE now trails PP by 4.8 points, slipping to 27.6%. That’s more than four points below its 2023 general election result and only just above its lowest mark of the year. The gap between the two basic parties has widened by nearly a point since July. Sumar and Podemos, the other basic parties on the left, have not gained from PSOE’s decline. Together, they account for just 8.5% of voting intentions, down from 12.3% in 2023.
Vox’s gains go beyond the numbers. Now, 27% of respondents see Vox as the party best able to manage immigration, ahead of both PSOE and PP. This perception has grown as migration has become a central issue, especially after the Ceuta crisis put border management and security in the spotlight. The poll came a month after the crisis began. By then, public opinion had time to settle around these topics.
Vox also has the most mobilized and loyal voters. Over 71% of its 2023 voters say they are certain to vote again, and 85.9% plan to stick with the party, more than supporters of any rival. Vox’s rise is also fueled by voters switching from both PP and PSOE: nearly 13% of former PP voters now lean toward Vox, and some ex-PSOE voters are also moving right.
Official data from Spain’s Ministry of the Interior show that irregular border crossings in Ceuta surged by over 200% during the crisis period. The increase prompted emergency coordination between Spanish and Moroccan authorities, along with heightened security measures. Authorities also temporarily deployed additional police forces to the enclave.
The left’s position is further weakened by uncertainty within Sumar, which still has no agreed candidate and lacks a clear brand. Its platform for the next election is also unsettled. This fragmentation makes it harder for the progressive bloc to present a credible alternative as the right consolidates. Adding the far-right Se Acabó la Fiesta (SALF), now at 2.2%, brings the right-wing total to 52.4%, leaving the left more than sixteen points behind.
Age divides the electorate. Vox leads among Spaniards under 34, but its support drops among older voters, where PSOE is strongest. The Socialists draw nearly 30% support among those over 65. This generational split adds another layer to the changing political map.
The Ceuta crisis has exposed the government’s vulnerability on migration and given Vox more space for its hardline message. The situation escalated after a police report suggested Moroccan agents were involved in the border surge, contradicting the Spanish government’s earlier statements and drawing greater scrutiny to official responses. The fallout from these events continues to shape public opinion and party support.
Political deadlock over migration policy is not new in Ceuta. As reported earlier, disputes between national and regional authorities have repeatedly left vulnerable migrants in limbo, reflecting deep divisions in Spain’s approach to border management.
The latest data show a clear realignment. The right has turned the government’s perceived missteps and public anxiety over migration into electoral gains. The left, fragmented and uncertain, is losing momentum and voters. Unless the progressive bloc resolves its internal divisions and offers a stronger alternative, the path to La Moncloa increasingly favors a right-wing coalition, strengthened by the numbers and a political climate that rewards firm positions on migration.
