India faces a sharp weather divide. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) warns of extremely heavy rainfall in the northeast and parts of the east, while heatwave conditions continue across the northern plains. On Monday, June 29, Sikkim, Sub-Himalayan West Bengal and the hills of the northeast were expected to see the heaviest downpours, with some areas likely to receive over 20 cm of rain in 24 hours. Such rainfall can quickly flood low-lying areas and disrupt daily life. The IMD’s wider forecast also covered parts of the Northeast, eastern India, the west coast and basic India.
Beyond the mountainous regions, isolated areas of Arunachal Pradesh, Assam and Meghalaya were on alert for very heavy rain, with similar warnings for parts of Kerala. The IMD forecast heavy showers in other states and regions, including Bihar, Odisha, Telangana, coastal Karnataka, Konkan and Goa, Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu.
Thunderstorms, lightning and gusty winds of up to 60 km/h were expected across a wide swath of the country, from the northeast to the southern peninsula. The IMD said the monsoon had yet to cover the entire nation. As of June 28, its northern limit extended through Surat, Indore, Mandla and Motihari, leaving much of Uttar Pradesh and the Delhi region hot and dry. By June 30, the monsoon had covered the southeast and northeast, many parts of basic India and some parts of the northwest. The IMD expected it to advance into Delhi and parts of Haryana, Punjab, Rajasthan and Jammu and Kashmir within two to three days.
The national rainfall figures show how uneven the season has been. India received 99.5 mm of rain in June, compared with a normal 165.3 mm. That was a 39.8% shortfall and the fifth-lowest June total since 1901, information from the IMD assessment reported by ANI on June 30. Of the country’s 36 meteorological subdivisions, 24 recorded deficient rainfall and three recorded large deficient rainfall. The southwest monsoon reached the Andaman and Nicobar Islands on May 16 and Kerala on June 4, three days after Kerala’s normal onset date of June 1.
Heatwave warnings remained in effect for isolated areas of Bihar, Uttar Pradesh and the Haryana-Chandigarh-Delhi belt. Temperatures in these regions were forecast to reach 40°C to 42°C, while Delhi was likely to get a brief spell of evening rain and gusty winds. The IMD defines a heatwave in the plains as a day when temperatures reach at least 40°C and are significantly above normal. On June 27, Phalodi in Rajasthan recorded a high of 43.8°C.
Two basic factors are driving the current weather pattern. One is the monsoon trough, a belt of low pressure stretching from Punjab to Bihar that channels moist air into eastern India. The other is orographic lifting: terrain forces moisture-laden air from the Bay of Bengal to rise over the eastern Himalayas and Khasi Hills, producing intense rainfall. This helps explain why Sikkim and Meghalaya can see exceptionally heavy downpours even as other regions remain short of rain.
Additional cyclonic circulations over Madhya Pradesh, the Arabian Sea and Telangana are bringing more rain to basic regions. The IMD also said the next western disturbance, a rain-bearing system from the Mediterranean, was expected to reach northwest India by July 2, potentially easing the heat in the plains. The June assessment recorded no low-pressure systems forming during the month. The IMD expected El Niño conditions to persist through the rest of the monsoon season, while the Indian Ocean Dipole remained neutral.
Mawkyrwat in Meghalaya recorded an exceptional 39 cm of rain in the 24 hours leading up to June 28, showing the intensity of the current monsoon phase. Heavy rain and persistent heat have kept authorities focused on flood and heat risks. The contrast fits the IMD’s July outlook: below-normal rainfall was likely across most of the country, while normal to above-normal rainfall was expected in parts of northwest and northeast India, east-basic India and the eastern peninsular region.
Spain is not directly affected, but recent weather in the Madrid region offers a contrast. The region saw its own heatwave end suddenly, as described in this report on the abrupt temperature drop following days of extreme heat. The contrast reflects how sharply weather patterns can differ between regions.
India’s monsoon typically arrives in early June and progresses northward, but its advance can be uneven, leaving some areas exposed to prolonged heat. The delayed onset over Kerala, the absence of June low-pressure systems and the broader seasonal influence of El Niño formed part of the context for the country’s deficient rainfall total. The IMD’s forecasts are closely watched as excessive rain and extreme heat affect agriculture, infrastructure and daily routines. In the coming days, authorities will prepare for potential flooding in regions under alert and continue monitoring temperature spikes in the north.
